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Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:18 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
why not?
because they would a worse record, worse SOS, less division championships, and less wins against the other team.
Voters aren't as stupid as people think they are (at least collectively). In the end, they almost always vote as a whole what makes logical sense. And No way does Bama over LSU make logical sense of the tune 90+% of voters.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:19 am to ForeLSU
quote:
You mean because voters objectively looked at all the factors and voted correctly for a change?
they'll say the same thing this year
but we also made the jump AFTER winning the SEC. if we lose before the SECCG, it will take a lot of work to go over bama
voters would basically have to ignore that we just lost to a 1-loss arky team and keep them behind LSU and bama
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:20 am to lsumatt
quote:
No way does Bama over LSU make logical sense of the tune 90+% of voters.
even if they go to the SECCG and win?
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:20 am to SlowFlowPro
Objectively, we have the best resume even with a loss to Arkansas 
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:22 am to LSUzealot
i agree. but you know, and i know, voters will, AT THE LEAST, put arkansas over LSU that week
Bama likely will stay ahead of arky (prior ranking and prior win), so it will go (in terms of just SEC) bama, arky, LSU
if that happens, our chances of making the SECCG are slim. THAT will be the hook, imo
Bama likely will stay ahead of arky (prior ranking and prior win), so it will go (in terms of just SEC) bama, arky, LSU
if that happens, our chances of making the SECCG are slim. THAT will be the hook, imo
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:22 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
if we lose before the SECCG, it will take a lot of work to go over bama
voters would basically have to ignore that we just lost to a 1-loss arky team and keep them behind LSU and bama
Remember it's not the polls that determine who goes to the SECC game, it's the BCS rankings and our computer averages are significantly better than Arkansas. We can fall behind Arkansas in the polls and still qualify with a higher BCS ranking (can still be behind Bama, but we'd go becuse we are within 5 spots of them in BCS and beat them head to head)
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:22 am to lsumatt
quote:
Lsumatt
I know you are projecting bama behind OU and oregon using facts and analysis if things dint get crazy, but how much does money play into the possibility of a rematch with bama? Doesn't each conference get 17 mill or something for a participant in the bcsnc. Would the other conferences really allow the sec to pocket the 34 mill for both teams and distribute all that money?
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:23 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
even if they go to the SECCG and win?
I thought we were talking about LSU losing to UGA.
It is unlikely Bama gets to the SECCG. LSU would have to finish 3rd of the 3 in the 3-way tie and LSU's computer ranking is so much stronger than either it seems improbable.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:25 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
if they go to the SECCG and win?
If you read Lsumatt thread, he projects Arky to be 3rd out of bama LSU even with a win at LSU due to their Lousy computer score. If bama and LSU are within 5 spots of each other, it goes to head to head. LSU is in the seccg.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:25 am to FTL Tiger
quote:
Remember it's not the polls that determine who goes to the SECC game, it's the BCS rankings
quote:
and our computer averages are significantly better than Arkansas.
let me just add that arkie's computer score will get a good bump beating LSU. the advantage won't be as big
i could see (not saying that it's guaranteed) the polls the week before the SECCG is decided as
Bama
Oregon
OU
Arkansas
Clemson
LSU
if there is a sandwich team like clemson, that could easily be enough. and if the voters WANT to push bama, they'll put 2-3 (like VT or Stanford)
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:26 am to lsumatt
quote:
I thought we were talking about LSU losing to UGA.
no no no
pre-SECCG
if LSU loses to UGA then shite will get real. i think UO-OU is the most likely. i could be wrong
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:28 am to SlowFlowPro
We'll see if Arky jumps us. An OU win would make things harder for them. Also, right now it looks like Bama is in I'd we win out and they aren't going to Atlanta. I just don't see the voters putting in 2 1-loss teams ahead of us when we beat both.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:30 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
i could see (not saying that it's guaranteed) the polls the week before the SECCG is decided as
Bama
Oregon
OU
Arkansas
Clemson
LSU
if there is a sandwich team like clemson, that could easily be enough. and if the voters WANT to push bama, they'll put 2-3 (like VT or Stanford)
You aren't really suggesting that LSU could fall to #6 after beating Oregon at Dallas, Bama at Bama and WVU at WVU?? Of all the 1 loss teams, LSU would still have the best resume`.
Clemson and OU would have much worse losses than LSU. Oregon and Bama would have been beaten by LSU. LSU would be the only team to have beaten 2 of the teams in the top 6.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:31 am to LSUzealot
quote:
I just don't see the voters putting in 2 1-loss teams ahead of us when we beat both.
yeah LSU certainly has an outlier schedule this year. LSU's schedule is the biggest outlier of the BCS era, imho
we've seen teams with a claim to #1 having beat 1 other team with similar losses, but not 2. at least i can't think of any
and my theoretical poll was generous to LSU. what if voters (pre-SECCG) put Bama, Oregon, Arky, THEN OU? OU won't have its game against OSU yet, so that could happen. that creates an even bigger poll gap b/w LSU and Arky
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:32 am to FTL Tiger
quote:
You aren't really suggesting that LSU could fall to #6
yes, i am
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:35 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
You aren't really suggesting that LSU could fall to #6
yes, i am
Hope it never gets to that scenario and we win out, but if that occurs, I'd still take LSU's chances and I believe (with lots of help from LSUMatt's analysis) that we are in the best shape of all of the teams, even with one loss.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:37 am to FTL Tiger
in 2007 we were #1 prior to arky (with an impressive resume up to that point)
we lost to arky at home and fell to SEVEN in the BCS
we lost to arky at home and fell to SEVEN in the BCS
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:43 am to SlowFlowPro
How about MSU just ends this 3-way tie shite today with a win over Arky ?
I'm calling it now.
Karma loves LSU.
I'm calling it now.
Karma loves LSU.
Posted on 11/19/11 at 10:44 am to Lsupimp
that would be so epic, only b/c then we'd go to the SECCG over bama even if they were ranked ahead of us and bama. would. explode.
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