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re: I understand why O went for the field goal...
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:43 pm to Goldrush25
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:43 pm to Goldrush25
quote:Scoring that quickly on this D is not that likely to happen either.
You can always say "what if" but the better question is "what's most likely to happen?"
1
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:44 pm to Southcoast
Looks like the play should have been QB sneak behind Clapp. Better grade than the FG % thats for sure.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:45 pm to tigerfoot
quote:
Scoring that quickly on this D is not that likely to happen either.
Yes, but making the correct decision in the first place likely would've mitigated the damage done by sustaining that unlikely outcome.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:45 pm to Southcoast
It didn't matter what he did, he would have been judged harshly either way. Whether successful or not.
But, if it was me, I would have gone for it both times.
But, if it was me, I would have gone for it both times.
This post was edited on 1/4/18 at 2:46 pm
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:46 pm to jeff70121
quote:
jeff70121
I understand why O went for the field goal...
Make the 2 chip shot field goals and we wouldn't even be discussing this....
More than this, why this season the RED ZONE offense was not effective
Too many missed field goals but why were these not touchdowns.
3 more touchdowns for LSU instead of 3 field goal attempts and the game is a run away win.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:48 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
Average amount of points gained from drives beginning at the 1 yard line is under 1.5. So a FG is not close to likely at that distance.
Good coaches know things like that.
You can always say "what if" but the better question is "what's most likely to happen?"
What is the average amount of points given up by Dave Aranda's defense in the 4th quarter? What is it when the opposing team only has 2:03 on the game clock, ONE timeout and starting from their side of the field?
Against LSU:
A&M 4th quarter points = 0
Tennessee 4th quarter points = 0
Arkansas 4th quarter points = 0
Alabama 4th quarter points = 3
Auburn 2nd half points = 0
Good coaches know things like that. Don't you think?
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:48 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
Maybe but that doesn't mean it wasn't the correct decision based on win probability. Again, getting stuffed 3 times doesn't mean anything other than that's what happened. There's such a thing as positive regression.
Agree. That's why I said in the end I probably would have run the ball. I do; however, understand the reasoning to kick and was also somewhat confident Aranda's D could hold.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:48 pm to Topwater Trout
quote:
going for it is always the right call unless there was less than 30 seconds on the clock
Absolutely not. In 2011, against that Bama defense, going for it would result in failure more than half the time. That would be very stupid. I'm not sure what was the best call against this ND team, though.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:52 pm to pellietigersaint
quote:
4th and an inch you run it every fricking time from the inception of the game until ever more.
So you're saying you would...
quote:
increase the predictability
You made the argument against "always running it" very well.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:54 pm to Tiger Ree
quote:
What is the average amount of points given up by Dave Aranda's defense in the 4th quarter? What is it when the opposing team only has 2:03 on the game clock, ONE timeout and starting from their side of the field?
Against LSU:
A&M 4th quarter points = 0
Tennessee 4th quarter points = 0 Arkansas 4th quarter points = 0
Alabama 4th quarter points = 3
Auburn 2nd half points = 0
Good coaches know things like that. Don't you think?
You left out Troy and MSU.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:55 pm to Southcoast
You take the points, period.
Defense had done a great job all game
Defense had done a great job all game
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:56 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
Defense had done a great job all game
3 of the prior 4 drives, ND moved the ball WELL.
Just sayin
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:56 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
You take the points, period.
But why not take more points when both running and kicking have approximately same likelihood of success?
This post was edited on 1/4/18 at 2:57 pm
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:57 pm to RogerTheShrubber
quote:
You take the points, period.
Not period. No matter how many different threads you keep saying that chicken shite call in a meaningless exhibition game was right. CheeriOs are the only people I see saying that was a good call. I've yet to see a single analyst in any medium agree with that call.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 2:59 pm to RogerTheShrubber
All things considered a FG was the safest path to him collecting his $100k bonus for the bowl win so he played the odds.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 3:01 pm to Goldrush25
quote:
What is the average amount of points given up by Dave Aranda's defense in the 4th quarter? What is it when the opposing team only has 2:03 on the game clock, ONE timeout and starting from their side of the field? Against LSU: A&M 4th quarter points = 0 Tennessee 4th quarter points = 0 Arkansas 4th quarter points = 0 Alabama 4th quarter points = 3 Auburn 2nd half points = 0 Good coaches know things like that. Don't you think?
quote:
You left out Troy and MSU.
Be careful now. Looks like you are laying some of the blame for those losses on Aranda.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 3:02 pm to Mr. Wayne
FROM WHAT i SAW, THAT IS NOT WHAT LOST US THE GAME.
oops caps .. our def player went for the ball to be a hero, missed(did not rip it) it and they scored.
oops caps .. our def player went for the ball to be a hero, missed(did not rip it) it and they scored.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 3:02 pm to Southcoast
Please - it was a freaking inch from the white line. If you cannot get an inch then you deserve to lose.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 3:07 pm to BayouCowboy
quote:
Be careful now. Looks like you are laying some of the blame for those losses on Aranda.
Defenses give up a lot of points sometimes. You can't predict when that's going to happen or count on it not to happen.
I think you just get the maximum amount of points you can when the odds favor it. The odds favored going for it. If it were even two yards out, the odds change drastically and kicking is the better option.
Posted on 1/4/18 at 3:08 pm to Penrod
quote:
You made the argument against "always running it" very well.
not the same.
4th and 1 inch.......tell the defense you are running it........shouldnt matter one bit
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