How superior is the LSU D vs A&M D?

When looking at the total defense rankings LSU comes in at #8. A&M comes in at #50. LSU's Tiger defense gave up on average 301.7 yds per game this year. A&M's defense gave up 357.5 yds per game.

Case closed right? #8 is a better ranking than #50 and giving up only 300yds is better than giving up 350yds. It would appear so on the surface.

The total defense statistic assumes the defenses are on the field for the same number of plays. Obviously they are not and a lot of that has to do with the team's very own offense...is it a hurry up offense or a grind it out/chew up the clock offense. Obviously a hurry up offense means the defense will be back out on the field more often.

Texas A&M definitely runs a hurry up offense. The Aggies have gone even faster since Tannehill became the QB. Looking at the offense statistics you clearly see how fast they are. They are tied for 6th in the country in total number of plays run this year. Teams ranked 1-5 actually played one more game this year. If you avg. out plays/game, only Oklahoma has more. Thus Texas A&M probably has the second "fastest" offense in the nation meaning their defense is on the field a lot more often.

So how do we resolve the defensive statistics to account for A&M's D being on the field more often due to its hurry up offense? I think the only way is to look at yds/play.

According to yds/play:

#11-Texas A&M (4.7)
#16-LSU (4.8)

These same statistics are consistent when you compare scoring D. LSU gives up 17pts/game, A&M 20 pts/game. But when you factor in A&M's defense being on the field 15-20% more plays, the pts yielded statistics even out.


Do I think A&M has a better defense than LSU b/c of this? No. To truly answer that question you would have to compare the offenses of the opponents they have played. A quick cursory search yields the top 5 offenses played by each team:

A&M:
#1 Ok.State
#10 Arkansas
#12 Oklahoma
#13 Baylor
#18 Texas Tech

LSU:
#8 Auburn
#10 Arkansas
#27 Alabama
#45 Mississippi
#46 MSU


My gut tells me these defenses are a lot closer than anyone would like to believe. They both have mini-geniuses as their DC. They both have a leader of unquestionable talent and sure-fire top 10 NFL draft pick in 2011 who have brought home serious hardware.

I think the same fallacies that we might see with regards to defensive statistics work on the offensive side of the ball as well. On the surface one might think there is a large discrepancy between #22 A&M and #89 LSU in total offense. But so many more factors go into this debate as well. NAMELY, what kind of D is each team facing on the season. Without even performing a cursory search here I think most will agree LSU has been facing much tougher defenses in the SEC than A&M has in the Big 12.

The one area that I think people on both sides of the Cotton Bowl have failed to discuss (and the most important aspect of the game IMO) is Texas A&M punting. A&M ranks #119/120 in the NCAA in punting. #119/#120. And it is much worse than that statistic lets on. It has been so bad that A&M has resorted to having their QB punt on occasion. Rumors have been floating around as well that A&M's starting punter will miss the Cotton Bowl. That means the best guy they have, who happens to be the 2nd worst punter in the nation, will be missing the game with injury. He is the starter for a reason...that reason being he is the best A&M has. Thus the backup must be atrocious. To compound all of this the backup will be punting to one Patrick Peterson. I would be shocked if LSU doesn't get at least 1 TD out of punt returns. Additionally the Tigers should have great field position for most of the day. This will be the difference in the game IMO.

I'm not going to give a prediction. That is Vegas' specialty. Interestingly some sports books have dropped the line to even LINK /
probably based on the Stevan Ridley news more than anything.


Add in a Les Miles finish and this could be one of the best bowl games of the year.