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re: How much can we realistically pitch Skenes in Omaha?
Posted on 6/13/23 at 7:57 am to Honkus
Posted on 6/13/23 at 7:57 am to Honkus
quote:
why not? why do people keep saying this? if we lose in the marbles with Floyd we are in the EXACT SAME SPOT
Why not? Here's why.
Let's say that we are in the same spot after Monday's game.
Scenario 1 - Lose first/win second:
If we pitch Floyd in Saturday's game one and lose and then we win on Monday with Skenes, we have two play two elmination games without pitching Skenes just to get to the Championship series if we want Skenes to pitch twice. So he'll pitch Monday and then Saturday.
Scenario 2 - Win first/lose second:
If we pitch Skenes in game one and win and then lose with Floyd in game two, we are technically in the same spot, right? EXCEPT, we can pitch Skenes in one of the two elmination games (Thursday) to get us to the championship series AND he can pitch again on Monday in the deciding game of of the championship series, if necessary. He'll pitch Saturday, Thursday, and then again on Monday.
I like scenario 2 much better. The more Skenes gets to pitch, the better off we are.
The pitch Skenes in game 2 is really only a valid scenario in a short tournament where he is only going to pitch one game.
1
Posted on 6/13/23 at 8:04 am to Jax-Tiger
quote:
AND he can pitch again on Monday in the deciding game of of the championship series, if necessary.
Yeah id just prefer throw best on best and have our ace on full rest for ths Championship series. This may be 2017 scars here, but if he starts twice before the CS we arent getting another full outing out of him.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 8:43 am to tigerclaw10
Two games is all one could expect
Posted on 6/13/23 at 9:34 am to tigerclaw10
His third appearance will be game 3 vs florida. He will strike out Caglione in the 8th then hit the game winning HR off of Caglione in the 9th for the win. Cementing the legend of Paul Skenes
Posted on 6/13/23 at 9:37 am to tigerclaw10
Game 1, first game of championship series, last inning of 3rd game of championship series.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 10:17 am to Honkus
quote:
You absolutely CAN NOT fall into the losers bracket after one game.
quote:
why not? why do people keep saying this? if we lose in the marbles with Floyd we are in the EXACT SAME SPOT
roll the dice with Hurd/Floyd in game 1 so that we'll have Skenes for marbles game vs the unanimous #1 ranked WF.
if we lose that gamble in game 1, then we have Skenes in an elimination game anyway to get us back to the loser of the marbles game
If you win game 1, you get Floyd vs. Wake in game 2. If you lose game 1, you don’t get a shot at Wake until game 4 (after 2 elimination games against top-tier competition) AND you’ve played 1 more game than them AND you have to 2-0 them to advance.
Losing the first game is a huge deal because it means we burn up more arms trying to get out of the loser’s bracket.
Yes, you can lose game 2 anyway and be in the same boat. But you can’t assume that starting Floyd vs. USM/Tennessee is the same thing as starting Floyd against Wake, because youre talking about starting him against an ace in game 1 vs. starting him against Wake’s #2 guy in game 2. So yeah - Skenes gives you a better chance than Floyd against Wake’s #2 guy. But does that offset the disadvantage of starting Floyd against UT/USM’s #1 guy? I doubt it.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 10:17 am to Honkus
quote:
but if he starts twice before the CS we arent getting another full outing out of him.
Maybe, maybe not. Maybe Jay pulls him after 85 pitches if we're up 8 runs after 6 innings. If his pitch count is not too high, he could start a third game. Regardless, we could see him go 3-4 innings on Monday, if needed. By that time, ALL teams will be patching together multiple pitchers to get through a game. It would be nice to have Paul in the mix, even with only 3 days of rest.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 10:20 am to tigerclaw10
I know this thread is about Skenes, but I have so much confidence in Floyd, Hurd, and Cooper starting games right now.
Floyd had a bad outing Sunday, but he even admitted he struggled with his curve against Kentucky. That sort of thing is hit or miss sometimes, and if he has it in Omaha then LSU will win against anybody.
Floyd had a bad outing Sunday, but he even admitted he struggled with his curve against Kentucky. That sort of thing is hit or miss sometimes, and if he has it in Omaha then LSU will win against anybody.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 10:59 am to Tifway419
The emergence of Hurd and Cooper has changed a lot. Cooper is putting in serious work and avoiding having to go into the pen for other guys. Cannot overstate enough how much he contributed so far late in the season. In his last ten innings pitched, he's given up six hits and has two ER.
This post was edited on 6/13/23 at 11:07 am
Posted on 6/13/23 at 11:06 am to lostinbr
quote:
because youre talking about starting him against an ace in game 1 vs. starting him against Wake’s #2 guy in game 2. So yeah - Skenes gives you a better chance than Floyd against Wake’s #2 guy. But does that offset the disadvantage of starting Floyd against UT/USM’s #1 guy? I doubt it.
Its an interesting debate and you bring up some good questions
A couple points... Wake pretty much has 3 aces. 3 dudes with ERA under 3 with sparkling ratios, k/bb #s, etc (see below). Say what you want ab the ACC, but these dudes stuff would play in the SEC. Maybe not sub 3 ERA but would play nonetheless.
Also i think we're going to see Andrew Lindsay for Tennessee. He was a transfer from Charlotte who started out midweek/relief and worked his way into their Friday role out of necessity (burns to back end of bullpen, dollander struggles, etc). He shut the gamecocks down cold, but has be so-so otherwise. Not on the level of any of Wakes top 3 SP.
This post was edited on 6/13/23 at 11:09 am
Posted on 6/13/23 at 11:15 am to Jax-Tiger
quote:
Maybe, maybe not. Maybe Jay pulls him after 85 pitches if we're up 8 runs after 6 innings. If his pitch count is not too high, he could start a third game. Regardless, we could see him go 3-4 innings on Monday
Yeah maybe, maybe not. assume the worst and we are playing florida in the CS. Tough proposition not having Skenes available for games 1 or 2.
quote:
By that time, ALL teams will be patching together multiple pitchers t
Again, maybe, maybe not. Gotta prepare for the worst possible scenario.. Florida goes 3-0 and are set to roll with Sproat, Waldrep and Cags. I want Skenes available on full rest for game 1 or 2.
This post was edited on 6/13/23 at 11:16 am
Posted on 6/13/23 at 11:29 am to Honkus
Another point that I think has to be considered is that you aren’t guaranteed to face Wake Forest in game 2. Everyone assumes that will be the case, but Stanford could beat them on Saturday.
ETA: Wake is certainly a heavy favorite, just pointing out that the uncertainty has to play into Jay’s decision to some extent.
ETA: Wake is certainly a heavy favorite, just pointing out that the uncertainty has to play into Jay’s decision to some extent.
This post was edited on 6/13/23 at 11:32 am
Posted on 6/13/23 at 11:33 am to lostinbr
quote:
but Stanford could beat them on Saturday.
Would certainly be an upset. Wake's currently at -200. But yea if so, even better.
You have to assume WF advances when making the pitching decision IMO
Posted on 6/13/23 at 11:34 am to TigerOnTheMountain
quote:We did the same thing with Louis Coleman.
They’re not going to do anything to jeopardize his potential draft earnings, but if we’re 6 outs away from a title in a one run game, he’s getting the ball no matter how much he’s pitched.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 2:40 pm to KingofthePoint
quote:Changed your name for accuracy
MissingthePoint
Posted on 6/13/23 at 2:55 pm to tigerclaw10
I'd love 2 long outings but I doubt they let him go more than 200 total.
Posted on 6/13/23 at 2:55 pm to tigerclaw10
Double play
This post was edited on 6/13/23 at 2:57 pm
Posted on 6/13/23 at 3:06 pm to Honkus
"? why do people keep saying this? if we lose in the marbles with Floyd we are in the EXACT SAME SPOT
roll the dice with Hurd/Floyd in game 1 so that we'll have Skenes for marbles game vs the unanimous #1 ranked WF.
if we lose that gamble in game 1, then we have Skenes in an elimination game anyway to get us back to the loser of the marbles game
- Loll did you just learn about the term "marbles" or you always overuse tf out of it? Damn bro..
roll the dice with Hurd/Floyd in game 1 so that we'll have Skenes for marbles game vs the unanimous #1 ranked WF.
if we lose that gamble in game 1, then we have Skenes in an elimination game anyway to get us back to the loser of the marbles game
- Loll did you just learn about the term "marbles" or you always overuse tf out of it? Damn bro..
This post was edited on 6/13/23 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 6/13/23 at 3:16 pm to Honkus
Skenes to come in and pitch 4 innings of shutout ball while also DH in championship series and winning game 2 with a 3 run blast. Becomes the greatest college baseball player to ever play. Statues go up.
This post was edited on 6/13/23 at 3:18 pm
Posted on 6/13/23 at 5:39 pm to tigerclaw10
Three starts done many times. Just like in 2017 Lange was set for game 3 of the championship series if had the payed
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