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Started By
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For those who don’t understand the line movement in the LSU game. It’s a good sign.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 1:50 pm
Posted on 10/18/22 at 1:50 pm
Ole Miss came into the week favored by -3.5.
Since the line has shifted to LSU -1.5. Even -2 some places now.
Despite 71% of the bets being on Ole Miss (which would generally favor Ole Miss by even more) the MONEY is really what shifts the line. I believe around 54% of the MONEY is coming in on LSU.
Still weird for a line to move this much based of 4% the money.
Really good sign for LSU here to see that shift.
Reverse line movement is when bets are coming in on the favorite(which was ole miss) yet the underdogs odds keep on growing which is happening here (making LSU the favorite). Vegas loves LSU.
Since the line has shifted to LSU -1.5. Even -2 some places now.
Despite 71% of the bets being on Ole Miss (which would generally favor Ole Miss by even more) the MONEY is really what shifts the line. I believe around 54% of the MONEY is coming in on LSU.
Still weird for a line to move this much based of 4% the money.
Really good sign for LSU here to see that shift.
Reverse line movement is when bets are coming in on the favorite(which was ole miss) yet the underdogs odds keep on growing which is happening here (making LSU the favorite). Vegas loves LSU.
This post was edited on 10/18/22 at 1:53 pm
22
Posted on 10/18/22 at 1:52 pm to Phillytiger9
Good news for whom? Has not a dang thing to do with the outcome!
Posted on 10/18/22 at 1:53 pm to Phillytiger9
This is the ultimate sell high situation on Ole Miss.
Doesn't always work out, but this smells a lot like Mississippi State 2012.
Doesn't always work out, but this smells a lot like Mississippi State 2012.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 1:53 pm to Phillytiger9
That money isn't playing the game on Saturday, though.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 1:55 pm to mdtiger1
quote:
Has not a dang thing to do with the outcome!
Correct. A line shift this big however is worth noting. Very odd movement in LSU favor. Which is a good sign.
This post was edited on 10/18/22 at 1:55 pm
Posted on 10/18/22 at 1:57 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
That money isn’t playing the game on Saturday, though.
Actually? WTF
Posted on 10/18/22 at 1:57 pm to Phillytiger9
really .. point spreads don't influence the outcome? No shite.
it's a good sign .. and as a Tiger fan i'd rather be on the right side of a shift.
it's a good sign .. and as a Tiger fan i'd rather be on the right side of a shift.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 1:58 pm to JW
quote:
really .. point spreads don't influence the outcome? No shite. it's a good sign .. and as a Tiger fan i'd rather be on the right side of a shift.
Absolutely. Shifts this weird are a REALLY good sign for the team in favor.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 1:59 pm to JW
Kiffin’s aggressive play calling will eventually bite him in the arse. Might as well be this weekend.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:01 pm to Phillytiger9
So LSU fans are more degenerate than Ole Miss fans... this checks out
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:02 pm to Phillytiger9
I believe I remember reading that Las Vegas oddsmakers have a high percentage of correct picks. Always? No. But more often than not.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:05 pm to Phillytiger9
The only way the money shift towards LSU's favor is a good thing is if sports betting in Vegas and officiating are somehow intertwined and they're in cahoots with each other. We all know that's not the case.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:08 pm to Phillytiger9
quote:
Despite 71% of the bets being on Ole Miss (which would generally favor Ole Miss by even more) the MONEY is really what shifts the line. I believe around 54% of the MONEY is coming in on LSU.
where are you getting this data from? A 4% differential wouldn't cause a 3.5 point swing. (at least I wouldn't think so)
This post was edited on 10/18/22 at 2:09 pm
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:10 pm to Phillytiger9
Where do you get your betting splits from?
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:13 pm to Phillytiger9
I'll take the win.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:38 pm to Phillytiger9
quote:
Very odd movement in LSU favor. Which is a good sign.
Only if the big money people know something we don’t know.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:40 pm to Phillytiger9
Vegas just sets a line on Sunday / Monday and then moves their lines throughout the week based on sharp action from profiled accounts (accounts that they know will win long-term and achieve closing line value). They don't "love" anybody. But honestly, it doesn't really matter where they open, because the limits on openers ($500 or $1000) are immaterial from the limits they are taking by Friday / Saturday morning ($25,000 or even $50,000) at market making books. Most books could probably open every single game as a PK with $500 limits, slowly increase limits every day until Saturday and they would still have a sharp line by the end of the week. They just want to have the sharpest line possible by the time 90% of the public makes their bets Friday night / Saturday morning. If they have a very efficient line by Saturday morning and are making an additional 4.5% from juice on a -110 line, they will win over a large sample of games, ie over the course of a season.
As far as "bet %" and "money %" go, these are very misleading as this is just data reported by a random sportsbook or website which may represent a tiny, cross-sectional slice of the entire betting market. They are also not very reliable or able to be verified at all.
As far as "bet %" and "money %" go, these are very misleading as this is just data reported by a random sportsbook or website which may represent a tiny, cross-sectional slice of the entire betting market. They are also not very reliable or able to be verified at all.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:41 pm to Phillytiger9
quote:
Absolutely. Shifts this weird are a REALLY good sign for the team in favor.
It's only a "really good sign" if the reason for the shift is because there is info of a key player for Ole Miss out that the public doesn't know about yet..which is what happened when Kentucky opened as an 11 point favorite over South Carolina only to have the line shift down to Kentucky -4.5 once word got out Kentucky's QB wasn't playing. Otherwise, the line shift only means the people willing to bet big money are taking LSU
Most books had Ole Miss opening as a 1 - 2 point favorite (I didn't see a lot of -3.5...if any). The line has shifted about three points. Not small, but not terribly uncommon either. The line shifted in LSU's favor vs. Tennessee despite ~70% of the bets coming in on Tennessee...we all saw how that "good sign" worked out.
Perhaps the "sharps" see something in LSU that gives them a ton of confidence this week. Or, perhaps, there is a big overreaction to the performance at Florida
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:43 pm to burdman
quote:
Where do you get your betting splits from?
Brody Miller via Twitter. Pretty similar on all sportsbook but I believe he is using DK as a reference.
Posted on 10/18/22 at 2:44 pm to Phillytiger9
Sharps don't bet on DK because they get limited there lol.
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