re: For those that it applies to: Why so confident?

quote:

---

All the talk before the November 5th matchup was about the winner basically goes to the BCSCG. The rest of the talk was if the loser would still have a shot to get there.

Just about everyone said that if LSU lost a close game, they would still have a great chance in getting back in the title game. However, if Alabama lost, losing at home, even to the #1 team, would not look good.

LSU got Bama's best effort. Both coaches were very timid in playcalling, but Miles knew that if it was close, his defense and special teams would make the difference. Saban knew points would be a premium, but tried too hard to get those points. Attempting long field goals and running a WR pass ended up killing his team.

Look at OT. Alabama's three plays were: Incomplete to TR, Imcomplete to TR, Sack. Why not try to run TR or Lacy?

LSU dominated the second half and OT on defense, and did what they needed to do on offense to keep the game going.

People talk about the points left on the board for Bama, but forget to mention that LSU had the ball TWICE on 1st and goal on the same drive, and only came away with 3 points. And, a short throw and Shepard falling down left another 4 points on the board.

I'll take my chances at the Dome with Les and time to prepare. His record speaks for itself, and I believe it is better than Nick's.

---

All are good but this was the best analysis....so far.

We could lose but since we beat them in November:

The crowd should have a slight LSU edge instead of being hostile.
Our OL has a healthy Lonergan and Williford is starting.
Our RB's have improved as well.
Lee will not throw 2 INTs.
We have played a tougher schedule than Bama since November and we have learned from that.
Our special teams are still much better than Bamas.

We held Richardson to under 100 yards last time and passes of greater than 20 yards are more likely to be intercepted than completed. This leaves Bama one dimensional with a short passing game. McCarron is relatively inexperienced at having to win games for Bama.

But we still need a good game from Jefferson or it will be a toss up. On the other hand we have a much better backup QB than Bama if it becomes necessary. I don't expect it to be necessary but this is the perfect environment for Lee to come in and shine. No pressure as the backup.

quote:

---

Mr. Campbell.

---

You're the first poster to know that. I think most people on the poli-board think I'm 74.

What has me the most nervous is the point spread. Both fan bases should be nervous.

I'll try by throwing out one word at a time and explaining as best I can (top 10 style):
1. Coaching - The Hat loves the big games
2. Confidence - LSU knows they can beat 'Bama
3. Defense - self-explanatory
4. Destiny - Possibly best college team ever!
5. History - LSU w BCS title in NO every 4 years!
6. Home - Dome is LSU's home away from home!
7. Offense - JJ starting QB + Hilliard at RB
8. Referee - Game should be decided on the field
9. Special - as in special team(s) + special team
10. Talent - LSU has more playmakers IMO
Hope this makes you feel better. Rest up. 10 hours and counting.... Geaux Tigers!

quote:

---

MoreOrLes

---

Thanks broseph.

You mean besides all the reasons that have been posted on here 50 times over the last month?

We have the advantage here. We will win. And I am far from being a homer.

LSU is a much more dynamic team than Bama and is more capable of a game changing play in any phase of da game. In a game between pretty evenly matched teams you've got to like the one with the knack for big plays and turnovers.

quote:

---

What has me the most nervous is the point spread.

---

LSU covered the last 2 meetings.
The spread this close to the game is more reflective of the media hype than who's gonna win.
If you want to look at lines for choosing winners, look at the open set by gurus.
After that, the line moves by how the masses bet and isn't tied to chance of winning the game, barring injury, etc.