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re: Did JJ look faster?

Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:14 pm to
Posted by Mayhawman
Somewhere in the middle of SEC West
Member since Dec 2009
10454 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

So it is an attempt to belittle Lee.
No, the shite makes as much sense as comparing Lee's 1st 5 games of '11 to JJ's 1st 5 of '09.
If I'm gonna compare 2 recruits, and one hasn't played this season, I'd go to their most recent performances to grade them.
The only thing I'd look to at beginning of last season would be to judge improvement.
If he was 5A and got inflated stats from a 2A beatdown, I'd be skeptical or throw it out completely.
Here also lies a big problem with the 1st 5 game stat comparison, imo.
This isn';t so hard to see unless agenda clouds are in the way.
That is all.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

My stance on the Jefferson thing is that if you look at his entire career as a whole, the first six games of 2010 are much more of anomaly than the standard. The back half of the season only lends credence to this theory.

interesting. I will run a regression on his stas over his time at LSU, game by game through time. The trend should be telling. But not now, I have to give a review session for one of my classes.

If someone can find the game/game data for each of the seasons in an easily downloadable format, that would help me a lot.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
296328 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

No, the shite makes as much sense as comparing Lee's 1st 5 games of '11 to JJ's 1st 5 of '09.


So making retarded statements negates retarded statements? Please. How about this, don't compare, don't judge whether you think one can improve or not (because he is a fifth year senior) and take things at face value, with a different OC and see how it goes from there.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
296328 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

the first six games of 2010 are much more of anomaly than the standard


Well may be. We will not know until he gets extensive playing time this year.
Posted by OBUDan
Chicago
Member since Aug 2006
40723 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:23 pm to
quote:

My stance on the Jefferson thing is that if you look at his entire career as a whole, the first six games of 2010 are much more of anomaly than the standard.


It's pretty true.

JJ in 09 took far too much criticism for simply "solid" play for a true sophomore in his first full season starting.

His poor performance through the first few games of last season only added fuel to that fire, which is where the dissenters became the loudest.

Posted by Rudy40
Baton Rouge,La
Member since Jan 2007
3072 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:24 pm to
Really so how is putting up JJ's entire season's efficiency rating cherry picking?????

I know in ur JJ world it might be cherry picking but in the real world?????
Posted by Mayhawman
Somewhere in the middle of SEC West
Member since Dec 2009
10454 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

How about this, don't compare,
I haven't ever started any comparison of the 2, just expressed dislike for the bias of the method.

I have expressed concerns of rushing for 1/2ypc less this year and slightly less ypp although vs lesser Ds.
As usual that turns into a QB pissing match and spouting about stuff we already know, like ppg are up.
Posted by Mr. Wayne
Member since Feb 2008
10083 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

RogerTheShrubber


My apologies. I read your posts and came across one that expresses my belief of this situation. No way to know who is better. My mistake.
This post was edited on 10/6/11 at 3:29 pm
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
296328 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:29 pm to
quote:


My apologies. I read your posts and came across one that expresses my belief of this situation. No way to know who is better. My mistake.



No biggie.

I believe the past is the past, Crowtons gone and the playing field is level.
This post was edited on 10/6/11 at 3:30 pm
Posted by Rudy40
Baton Rouge,La
Member since Jan 2007
3072 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:31 pm to
First I never said Lee was outstanding in 2010 just better than JJ as evidenced by the season higher passer rating. Secondly I do believe Lee benefited and played better in games he played more in and he obviously got less a chance in the games JJ was better in, though I would say in those 5 games he had one good half vs Bama, a great game versus Ole Miss, horrible versus ULM, good first half, bad 2nd half versus Arky and a very good game versus A&M. So it is hard to see a trend of steady improvement in JJ.
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
42191 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

Really so how is putting up JJ's entire season's efficiency rating cherry picking?????

I know in ur JJ world it might be cherry picking but in the real world?????


I'm looking forward to the day your exclamation point and question mark keys break off your keyboard.
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49062 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

If someone can find the game/game data for each of the seasons in an easily downloadable format, that would help me a lot.


just look at cfbstats.com

Just a quick look at passer efficiency, using last years overall numbers, above the 25th percentile is a rating of 143.1(+). The 25th - 75th percentile is 143.0 - 114.9. And the 75th is 114.9(-).

In his career (27 starts plus 2008 Ole Miss, so 28 games total), Jefferson has

9 games above the 25th percentile

8 games between the 25th and 75th percentiles, and

11 games under the 75th percentile.

Of those 11 games, seven came in consecutive weeks between the second and ninth weeks of the season last year. The other four were Ole Miss 2008, Vanderbilt 2009, Florida 2009, and ULM 2010.

If you look at an efficiency rating of 100.0, which is the 84th percentile, he's only obtained that rating or lower 6 times in his career and all six came in 2010 in a eight week span.


This post was edited on 10/6/11 at 3:37 pm
Posted by Rudy40
Baton Rouge,La
Member since Jan 2007
3072 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:33 pm to
Fortunately its not today but I will give you it is the truest thing you have said all day. I again challenge you to show me how posting JJ's season stats are cherrypicking?????????!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by lctiger
Member since Oct 2003
3432 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:34 pm to
what I don't get is why the "Lee Camp " there is so much concern over the return of JJ. Miles has said JLee is the starter. As long as he continues to play well and manage the offense, he will retain his duties. There is no need to bash anything and everything JJ.
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49062 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:36 pm to
quote:

in those 5 games he had one good half vs Bama, a great game versus Ole Miss, horrible versus ULM, good first half, bad 2nd half versus Arky and a very good game versus A&M.


The Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M games are three of the top nine QB performances at LSU since 2007 (if you believe efficiency ratings).

Here are the top ten:

1. 236.5 Lee v. Florida 2010
2. 234.7 Lee v. Northwestern State 2011
3. 209.6 Jefferson v. Ole Miss 2010
4. 203.2 Lee v. App. State 2008
5. 193.4 Jefferson v. Alabama 2010
6. 186.0 Jefferson v. Washington 2009
7. 172.3 Jefferson v. Tulane 2009
8. 169.4 Lee v. Mississippi State 2008
9. 164.0 Jefferson v. Texas A&M 2010
10. 154.6 Jefferson v. Auburn 2009
Posted by Rudy40
Baton Rouge,La
Member since Jan 2007
3072 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:40 pm to
Antonio you are a very objective poster at least from my reads of your post so my question would be dont you think 7 games is a little more than a slump? I mean that is more than half a season. I could buy 2 or 3 games but 7? Not to mention the ULM game which was after the Bama game which was supposedly where he turned the corner?

LINK
Posted by CougarBait
on catnip in a cougar's den
Member since Jun 2007
2021 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:42 pm to
Haven't read any of the post in this thread but I am going to take a guess-

bunch of arguing about Lee and Jefferson. Probably some bashing and stat geeks getting off. Did that cover it?
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49062 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:44 pm to
quote:

dont you think 7 games is a little more than a slump? I mean that is more than half a season. I could buy 2 or 3 games but 7?


It's a long slump for sure, but it's in consecutive weeks. It's not like he had a history of just playing awful games prior to that period. And then he played awful for seven straight games. And then he had a great run to the end of the season.
Posted by junkfunky
Member since Jan 2011
35764 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:44 pm to
quote:

Did that cover it?


That and the fact I don't know what racism is.
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49062 posts
Posted on 10/6/11 at 3:46 pm to
quote:

Not to mention the ULM game which was after the Bama game which was supposedly where he turned the corner?


The ULM game is tricky. He played awful, but Lee played even worse (combined going 8 for 22), which signals to me that it was a factor other than QB play.
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