re: Current list of LSU's early entrants to NFL Draft.... (UPDATED OP)

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Again. Two year sample. Could be trend. Might not be. Too short of a sample to tell.

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I agree it is a short time frame.

However, it is still a valid question as to why we lose more than other schools?

I do not fault any young man for going to get paid for his work, this is not about them. It is a question of why more of these young men from LSU leave to get paid than other schools.

It could turn out to be an advantage in recruiting. Historically players only played for 3 years anyway? If LSU gets them and plays them the 1st 3 and ships them off instead of playing the the last 3, is it that much of a difference?

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There is a lot of 20/20 hindsight in these arguments, I'll grant you. But, fact still remains that the higher you go, the better the signing bonus/pay. And it is a real material difference. 40-50% more money as a 3rd rounder compared to 6th rounder is a huge difference

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There's a difference(it's not as great as it once was), but is that difference worth delaying your career for? That's what these guys are dealing with. Yes staying and improving your draft and rookie contract is great, but being an NFL player a year earlier with a year less punishment on your body is also a big draw.

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Works for Alabama

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Pathetic.

How'd it work out for em this year chief?

How'd it work out for Oregon? How'd it work out for Stanford? You make such a compelling point.

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And it is a real material difference. 40-50% more money as a 3rd rounder compared to 6th rounder is a huge difference.

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Also the difference in the life of the contract of Bennie Logan and someone like Spencer Ware is around 35%. However the only guaranteed money for Bennie Logan and Spencer Ware is the signing bonus.

So both guys made $405,000 in base salary this year. In the 4th year Logan's base will be up to $745,000ish while Ware's will be up to $675,000.

So for many other underclassmen, is it worth prolonging your career for a chance to increase your signing bonus? In Ware's case, it isn't because his draft potential had been reached or close to it anyway.

Now take a look at a second round pick's contract: Kevin Minter. A nice signing bonus of $1.5 million and an average base salary of $704,000. But the only guaranteed money is the signing bonus plus the first year and half of seconds salary, so $ 2.2 million (about 700,000 is from his base salary. The back half of his salary which is escalating isn't guaranteed.

So what this guys are deciding is, is it worth the year wait to try to improve my signing bonus, when the base salary between a third and 6th isn't much different and the guaranteed money for a second rounder is mostly the signing bonus. For some guys like Spencer Ware or Michael Ford it makes sense to get a jump on your NFL career to prove your worth sooner rather than later.

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Again. Even after all these pages, I'm going to point out that I do not understand why so many of you are missing the injury part of the equation.

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it doesn't fit their agenda

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Also the difference in the life of the contract of Bennie Logan and someone like Spencer Ware is around 35%. However the only guaranteed money for Bennie Logan and Spencer Ware is the signing bonus.

So both guys made $405,000 in base salary this year. In the 4th year Logan's base will be up to $745,000ish while Ware's will be up to $675,000.

So for many other underclassmen, is it worth prolonging your career for a chance to increase your signing bonus? In Ware's case, it isn't because his draft potential had been reached or close to it anyway.

Now take a look at a second round pick's contract: Kevin Minter. A nice signing bonus of $1.5 million and an average base salary of $704,000. But the only guaranteed money is the signing bonus plus the first year and half of seconds salary, so $ 2.2 million (about 700,000 is from his base salary. The back half of his salary which is escalating isn't guaranteed.

So what this guys are deciding is, is it worth the year wait to try to improve my signing bonus, when the base salary between a third and 6th isn't much different and the guaranteed money for a second rounder is mostly the signing bonus. For some guys like Spencer Ware or Michael Ford it makes sense to get a jump on your NFL career to prove your worth sooner rather than later.

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good food for thought; to summarize, I think the key is the signing bonus. There are no guarantees for making a team, there are no guarantees for avoiding injury, etc. That potential signing bonus is crucial for making the early exit decision, imo.

Or at least it should be.

To the OP: I believe that last year's 11 draft entrants was an unusual clustering of players entering the draft which will not soon be exceeded.

The reality is, every year there will be 2-4 top notch 1st/2nd round Juniors who are in all reality the starts of the team for the year prior. To these guys, all the best of luck! I saw Benny Logan playing for Cincy this weekend in the playoffs, and to everyone above him, I believe they left because they were NFL ready and NFL caliber NOW

For the rest of that list that left, starting with Sam Montgomery, I sincerely believe that the depth of departure had to do with the hangover effect of the failed LSU/Alabama national championship game, during which we have scattered reports of team mutiny, poor moral, infighting, and otherwise a bullshite situation where the team, as it was, was really "hurt" due to some overhanging psychology. These players wanted to get the heck out of LSU, and some busted as a result.

We may never know what really happened in the days preceding and the day of the failed NCG vs. Alabama, but had LSU won that game, I do believe the list of 11 who left would have been only the few that were legit NFL caliber players. The rest who left early may have left due to the aftermath of the mess that was created that day by Jordan Jeffereson/ Jarrett Lee contingents of the team and the infighting that was rumored to be occurring.

Every tiger fan has to agree that we never have that type of even again, and I don't think we will for a very long time. This year's early declarations are for the most part, legit NFL caliber bodies/records. It's these OLine guys who seems to be leaving too early, and I guess for them, it's a gamble. They never become super stars during game time, so they don't get a chance to score 10 TD's in the Sr Season, and a bad knee injury can put them out for years, so I do see the reason even if I don't agree with their cause.

Kenny Hilliard would benefit the most by staying among the current crop. he's a great goalie back, and could become next year's JHill in short yardage. In a stable of backs, he should not expect too much injury danger. I've not heard about Blue leaving yet though, and I thought he was due to his injury year a while back... hmmm

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The potential to make ZERO dollars should be crucial in the decision weight process too. Something you seem loathe to acknowledge.

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??? Unless the guy gets seriously hurt in college (and there are insurance policies for this), he's still going to get paid.

If you want to make it purely a data-driven business decision, it goes back to the net present value of money. Signing bonus based on where he gets drafted. If he can improve his draft stock (while earning a degree), then he wins in multiple ways.

Early entrants run the risk of *NOT* getting paid, too.

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?? Unless the guy gets seriously hurt in college

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You say this like they're playing ping pong. It's a pretty legit risk.

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If you want to make it purely a data-driven business decision, it goes back to the net present value of money. Signing bonus based on where he gets drafted. If he can improve his draft stock (while earning a degree), then he wins in multiple ways.

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As the previous poster pointed out, if he IS going to get paid regardless then failure to make that $405K minimum THIS coming year has to be factored into the equation.

IE, right off the bat, any improvement made by waiting has to absorb that $405K into the number. You get that, right?