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Message
re: College Baseball Top 8 National Seed Picture
Posted on 5/17/25 at 9:58 pm to TigerCub
Posted on 5/17/25 at 9:58 pm to TigerCub
quote:
I honestly don't even think UCLA is in the discussion
They most likely aren't. Even if you force a west coast team into the top 8 Oregon and Oregon St are ahead of them. Same goes with Coastal. They probably don't have a shot either, but they are in there because they are somewhat around the discussions.
1
Posted on 5/17/25 at 10:00 pm to Sofaking2
quote:
LSU is #3 in the SEC. The 3rd best record and is ahead of Vandy in tie breaker. Or just say the 2 are tied at #3. Either way that gets you a top 8 seed. If some of those other teams wanted to get ahead of LSU they should win more SEC games
If it was that easy then this thread wouldn't be necessary. There are a few other teams with as good, or better resumes than LSU. I think LSU is a top 8 team too, but it's not as clear cut as you want to make it.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 10:01 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
It will intersting to see how they weigh RPI versus conference standings. 2 years ago Kentucky had a RPi of 2 and didn’t get a top 8 seed because they finished 6th in the conference.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 10:04 pm to Sofaking2
quote:
LSU isn’t getting left out. The record in the best conference in the country carries more weight than anything else.
This. Texas,LSU,Arky or swap LSU and Arky. Book it as the top 3 seeds
Posted on 5/17/25 at 10:05 pm to TigerCub
quote:
It will intersting to see how they weigh RPI versus conference standings
Yeah Auburn will be the case study.
If you ask to place them today I would go.
1- Arkansas
2- Texas
3- Vandy
4- UNC
5-LSU
6- Georgia
7- Auburn
8- FSU/Clemson (whichever goes further in the ACC tourney). If both fail and Oregon wins the Big, then Oregon gets a crack.
In reality though, the committee with go with something completely different for reasons that they decide in the moment.
This post was edited on 5/17/25 at 10:07 pm
Posted on 5/17/25 at 10:10 pm to Howyouluhdat
quote:
This. Texas,LSU,Arky or swap LSU and Arky. Book it as the top 3 seeds
Take off the purple and gold glasses and actually look the the resumes. LSU doesn't compare in multiple areas to those two. There are other teams where the only metric LSU leads is in number of conference wins.
This isn't me saying LSU won't be a national seed, because I've said multiple times that they are in a great spot. It's not carved in stone like some of you want to make it though.
LSU played both Mizzou and SC
Vandy played neither
Georgia played only Mizzou
Auburn played only SC
.
This post was edited on 5/17/25 at 10:15 pm
Posted on 5/17/25 at 10:17 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Take off the purple and gold glasses and actually look the the resumes. LSU doesn't compare in multiple areas to those two. There are other teams where the only metric LSU leads is in number of conference wins.
Which areas don’t they compare to the rest of the top 8 in? LSU has more Quad 1& 2 wins combined, #4 ELO and head to head over Arky but even if they don’t get a 2 they will be a 3 off conference wins alone.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 10:26 pm to Howyouluhdat
quote:
Which areas don’t they compare to the rest of the top 8 in?
Arkansas and Texas, which is who I was referencing in that post.
Both have more conference wins, higher RPI, higher SOS, more quad 1 wins.
quote:
they will be a 3 off conference wins alone
If it's off of conference wins alone then why isn't Vandy ahead of LSU? They have the same conference record with a much higher SOS and higher RPI.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 10:29 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
Let’s not forget also. The committee chair is very, very familiar with LSU.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 10:59 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
Both have more conference wins, higher RPI, higher SOS, more quad 1 wins.
Vandy can make case ahead of LSU but LSU and Arky are what and what imo. Top 4 may be all SEC. Neutral field LSU is better than Vandy though just going off the the eyeball test
Posted on 5/17/25 at 11:13 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
LSU played both Mizzou and SC
And they won 5 of those games. LSU shouldn't get penalized because they had to play those games. They were SEC games. I get the sentiment, but I just don't think that hurts them as much as everyone thinks. Weak non-conference may hurt them, but not conference.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 11:17 pm to TigerCub
quote:
It will intersting to see how they weigh RPI versus conference standings. 2 years ago Kentucky had a RPi of 2 and didn’t get a top 8 seed because they finished 6th in the conference.
I actually agree with this approach. Should be weighted heavily on regular season standings in the strongest conference. RPI has many problems.
Posted on 5/17/25 at 11:31 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
If it's off of conference wins alone then why isn't Vandy ahead of LSU? They have the same conference record with a much higher SOS and higher RPI.
The quadrant cutoffs are somewhat arbitrary and can impact the comparison. It’s what the committee will see and it may influence their decision, but it doesn’t necessarily have to dictate how we view the two teams. Miss St at #32 in the RPI is potentially in line for a 2-seed. LSU’s sweep doesn’t get counted as Q1 since the cutoff is 25, but why 25 and not something like 32, which aligns better with seeding? (Or 16, if you go the other way.) Q1 record still favors LSU at 13-10 to 15-14, but if you pull in Miss St it becomes 16-10. If we look at just Top 16 at home, Top 24 neutral, and Top 32 away, it’s 11-8 vs 15-14 (15-13 on the weekend). Vandy had 5 series losses (including a Classic) to 3 for LSU. LSU had 5 Q1 series wins (including the Texas wins over DBU and KSU) to 4 for Vandy. Miss St would make 6. Both had 7 Q1/2 series wins. I think RPI might sway the committee, but I think there’s a good case for LSU ahead of Vandy.
Posted on 5/18/25 at 7:25 am to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
The quadrant cutoffs are somewhat arbitrary and can impact the comparison
They are what they are though. We can't move the bar all over the place to make it favor LSU, which is what you kind of just did.
quote:
but I think there’s a good case for LSU ahead of Vandy
Vandy was just a talking point. All I really care about is LSU being a top 8. I couldn't care less if LSU is ahead of Vandy or not.
This post was edited on 5/18/25 at 7:31 am
Posted on 5/18/25 at 7:46 am to Hold That Tiger 10
If we do not get a top eight seed, the “what if” will be in my mind.
What if Jay had gone a different route and gotten the second win in Texas.
What if we had not lost game three to AM
What if we swept SC
What if Gavin Guidry had not gotten hurt
Also: it does not matter if we do not get in the top 8 anyhow, because we all know that whomever we are paired with will get bounced lol.
What if Jay had gone a different route and gotten the second win in Texas.
What if we had not lost game three to AM
What if we swept SC
What if Gavin Guidry had not gotten hurt
Also: it does not matter if we do not get in the top 8 anyhow, because we all know that whomever we are paired with will get bounced lol.
Posted on 5/18/25 at 8:28 am to LSU Neil
quote:
If we do not get a top eight seed, the “what if” will be in my mind.
What if Jay had gone a different route and gotten the second win in Texas.
What if we had not lost game three to AM
What if we swept SC
What if Tennessee doesn't make two errors and give us a chance to score 6 in the 9th.
You can't play the what if game in baseball. There is always another side to the coin. Going 19-11 in a league like the SEC is a very solid accomplishment. We have a great team and now it's time to enjoy the ride through the postseason.
Posted on 5/18/25 at 8:49 am to Hold That Tiger 10
Updated original post with each teams upcoming game in conference tournaments.
Posted on 5/18/25 at 9:41 am to Hold That Tiger 10
quote:
They are what they are though. We can't move the bar all over the place to make it favor LSU, which is what you kind of just did.
I know that’s how it looks, but I didn’t even look at Miss St’s RPI until after I had set my cutoffs. You are correct that the quadrants as they are defined is how the committee will look at it. I was only disagreeing with your assertion that Vandy was more deserving.
Posted on 5/18/25 at 9:48 am to MikeTheTiger71
quote:
I was only disagreeing with your assertion that Vandy was more deserving
I don't even necessarily think they are more deserving. Just giving counter arguments. My countering the crowd that says LSU is 100% a top 8 isn't me thinking that LSU isn't going to be a top 8.
Posted on 5/18/25 at 9:53 am to Hold That Tiger 10
What were we in 23’ #5?
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