re: Chip Kelly comment after game

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The Les offense worn down the Chip defense.

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No.. the LSU defense caused turnovers that gave our HORRIBLE offense fantastic average field position.. and we won the game because of it.

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Turnover margin is incredibly volatile year to year and has much less to do with coaching than with individual players and sheer luck.

Over the past 4 years (since chavis started) we've had TO margins of 16, 20, 8, and 4. Going back further we had 20 again in 2007, but -1 in 2008. Compounding that is that an opportunistic defense can cause interceptions but it's basically impossible to reliably cause fumbles OR to reliably recover fumbles but LSU caused and recovered 3 fumbles against Oregon. It was a combination of a ball hawking defense, particularly Matheiu, Oregon playing a freshman in his first game ever, and just plain bad luck for Oregon. But if it was really a coachable trait to cause and recover fumbles the numbers would be a lot more consistent year over year.

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It's volatile depending on the type of offenses faced and the personnel playing that year. In that game and throughout most of last season, Chavis was comfortable in surrendering a lot of yards as long as they lock it down in the red zone and force turnovers. The decision to let Mathieu ball-hawk instead of being told where to go and how to cover is a coaching one. You think that Darron Thomas, L. James, or Deanthony Thomas gave up those turnovers unforced? Yes, there is luck involved but you have to admit that the play-calling and training is what increased the probability that these turnovers will happen.

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Miles has also been coaching for about 3 times as long as Kelly and came into a program that had JUST won a national championship. When Kelly started at Oregon their last Rose Bowl win was 1917 and their last Rose bowl appearance was 1995. Since getting to Oregon they have gone to 4 BCS bowls in a row, won the Rose bowl, competed in another Rose bowl, played for a national championship, and have a combined record of 46-7. That's REALLY fricking impressive no matter how much you try to pull the "SEC is too tough and blah blah" bullshite.

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Kyle Wittingham and Gary Patterson have impressive win records until they faced a higher level of competition. Frank Beamer had a long streak of dominance over the ACC. You don't think level of competition factors in? You think Kelly would own the Pac-12 if Stanford, USC, ASU, and UCLA was swapped out for LSU, Bama, UGA, and Florida? Bob Stoops owns the Big 12. You think he does the same in the SEC?

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Kyle Wittingham and Gary Patterson have impressive win records until they faced a higher level of competition. Frank Beamer had a long streak of dominance over the ACC. You don't think level of competition factors in? You think Kelly would own the Pac-12 if Stanford, USC, ASU, and UCLA was swapped out for LSU, Bama, UGA, and Florida? Bob Stoops owns the Big 12. You think he does the same in the SEC?

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Are you really likening the PAC-12 to the MWC? I think this year Oregon would have beaten every team in the SEC except maybe Bama. Look at the bowl games, the cream of the SEC haven't exactly looked like world beaters. People always talk about the SEC because every year there is one excellent team that wins the NCG, but that doesn't mean that the rest of the conference is also good. A lot of times there are one or two excellent teams, a couple of good teams, and a lot of mediocre or worse teams.

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If you gain a net 3 extra offensive possessions, especially in good field position, that is going to translate into a blowout win even if the offense is average. The point was that the score differential was due in part to lose scoring opportunities for Oregon and gained ones for LSU. And that isn't something that is predictable or sustainable.

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But the person you were talking to was talking about how LSU's defense is an opportunistic defense that creates turnovers. Then you said the turnover margin is volatile and gave stats specifically during the years that Chavis was the defensive coordinator, as if to insinuate that Chavis' defenses don't always create a lot of turnovers.

But then, to prove that point, you present the statistic of turnover margin, which has nothing to do with the point you were trying to make.

For example... if in 2008 LSU had a turnover margin of -5, does that mean Chavis' defense didn't create a lot of turnovers? Not necessarily. Chavis' defense might have caused 30 turnovers, but the offense turned the ball over 35 times.

The turnover margin is brought down by the offense... and it completely fails to represent how well Chavis' defense created turnovers.

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He's a first time head coach in a program that was historically NOTHING for 50 years before he got his hands on it.

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Not true.....They were 10-3 the year before Kelly became coach. 9-4 before he ever took the OC job. In fact they had 4 10+ win seasons between 2000-2008, had a heisman candidate in Joey Harrington in the early 2000's and were in the BCS then.

While I 100% agree the guy is a great coach and has done an exceptional job at marketing and coaching Oregon, he didn't walk into a bare cupboard. Oregon was a team on the upswing and just like Miles has at LSU, Kelly took the ball and ran with it and made it better.

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I mean, nevermind that Oregon outperformed LSU against Auburn that year and took them down to a last second field goal, obviously it was blowout and Oregon didn't even belong on the field with Auburn.

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I think most people feel that Oregon could hang but what people get defensive about is the commentators and "experts" saying that SEC defenses couldn't handle Oregon's speed, especially when it's been proven in the past that they can.

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The SEC has been on a hot streak in national championships but let's not pretend that other good teams don't exist out there.

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100% agree. It's the same reason why all the 10-3, 9-4 means fire Miles talk is retarded. Florida and Bama are both recruiting the same as we are, now aTm is starting to. We won't beat those guys every year. We just need to be competitive for the SECC and when we catch those years like 2011 where everything seems to line up, take advantage of them. Other teams in the country are recruiting size and speed and there are more and more of these guys coming out of highschool. Everyone is getting better along with LSU.

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But the person you were talking to was talking about how LSU's defense is an opportunistic defense that creates turnovers. Then you said the turnover margin is volatile and gave stats specifically during the years that Chavis was the defensive coordinator, as if to insinuate that Chavis' defenses don't always create a lot of turnovers.

But then, to prove that point, you present the statistic of turnover margin, which has nothing to do with the point you were trying to make.

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Gotcha. My point regarding the Oregon game was that the turnover margin of +3 was an outlier and that, in part, lead to the wide score differential. The absolute number of turnovers Oregon had wasn't that important, just the differential. We've only gained 3 fumbles in a game 3 times in 6 years. The way the turnovers were generated was just really flukey and not something you could count on happening again if the game was played over again.

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He's a first time head coach in a program that was historically NOTHING for 50 years before he got his hands on it.

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He took over a program that was 10-3 the year before he got there.

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nevermind that Oregon outperformed LSU against Auburn

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LSU and Auburn were tied at 17 with 5 minutes to go in the game.

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The SEC hasn't exactly lit the world aflame this bowl season so it's pretty silly to see the "well, we play in the SEC argument" come up

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Are you on crack?

The SEC is by far a better conference than the PAC 12. It's not even close.

The SEC has 8 BCSCG wins and the PAC 12 has none since the only one they ever had was vacated.

I guess you can throw away the TAMU game too since there were too many turnovers caused by LSU. Oh, we shouldn't count the Saints superbowl season. They generated way too many turnovers that season for it to count especially since their defense sucks so bad now. Outlier season so therefore it doesn't really count.

No. Hopefully Chip will give us a look in a few years