re: CFN LSU preview

"LSU under Miles has still been able to hang with the elite of the elite even when things weren’t going all that well."

LSU's down seasons boil down to mainly two things: Poor QB play (which all started when RP was booted off the team), and the O-line not being able to protect those inexperienced QB's. And even still, the article's right...we played teams like Florida and Bama really close even with those troubles. Take away the bagillion interceptions and sacks over the last two seasons that were directly caused by the problems listed above, and we've got ourselves a damn strong football team...and with our recruiting like has been...we're only going to get stronger.

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some of us don't see a program in decline.

2000-2004: 48-16
2005-2009: 51-15

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Agreed. Some of you don't.

Let's find out if you can see anything in these numbers:

1988-1990: 8-24-1
1998-2000: 16-18-0

Those are the first three year records for Mack Brown and Carl Torbush at North Carolina. Is it possible that the program's position when they took over might have had an impact on their records in those first three years? Or is Torbush just that much better a coach than Brown?

Maybe it'll help to look at something closer to home...

1987-88: 18-5-1 (1 SEC title, 1 10-win season, 1 top 5 finish)
2000-01: 18-7 (1 SEC title, 1 10-win season, 1 top 10 finish)

So, are Mike Archer and Nick Saban about the same? Or did the state of the program when they took over have an impact on their early records?

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And we're talking about the Alabama team that has lost basically its whole defense and is in a supposed rebuilding year? While we've just completed two years of supposed rebuilding and have them at home? That's the team that is going to make us lose five games this year?

WTF?

No, that's the team that is going to lose to LSU in Tiger Stadium. Why do you insist that LSU is going to lose 5 games?

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I don't, although I think we will lose 5. I'm talking about the decline of the program to the point where we are preseason underdogs in five games, and you're saying we haven't declined, but it's just that Alabama has gotten better. Alabama getting better has nothing to do with our being underdogs in the four other games.

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When was the last time LSU was a preseason underdog in five games?

Probably during Saban's tenure.

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If it was, it would have been in 2000, his first year. Never since then, I'll bet.

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My point was just because another team has moved ahead of LSU doesn't NECESSARILY mean that LSU is in decline.

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Nobody is saying that "just" because Alabama has passed us and left us in the dust. I'm saying it for that and many other reasons. The fact that we can't beat Ole Miss and can only manage dead even with a rebuilding Arkansas these days, along with the fact that we can't touch Florida or Alabama any more, along with other indications, is why I'm saying it.

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I guess you thought LSU was in decline in 2006 when they hadn't won the SEC in 3 years. Then, all of a sudden, they win it ALL the very next year.

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And once again, you guess wrong. Back to back 11-2, top-5 finishes, plus considering we got totally screwed in 2006, gave every indication that we were maintaining an elite program.

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You just never know what's going to happen - until it does.

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I agree. You probably don't. Every morning, the sun probably surprises you.

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LSU has won 10 or more games 10 times in 116 seasons. Miles was the head coach for 3 of those 10. 10 win seasons (occurring at the blistering pace of, on average, every 11 1/2 seasons

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This is horribly misleading, for the majority of those 116 years the team played 11 or fewer games. Before 2005, LSU only played 13 or more games I think just 3 times, since 2005, LSU has played 13 games every year.

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If you don't like total wins OR percentage of wins, what metric do you want to use to define success

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I never said 10 wins was bad or unimpressive, just that its easier to win 10 when you play 13 or 14 games, than if you play 10 or 11, so to point out Les has the most 10 win seasons, while factual and impressive, the context of the amount of games needs to be included as well. Percentage is a much better measure. I'm gald you mention 69, I was going to point out that at 9-1, while not a 10 win season, was winning percentage of .900 which is better than 12-2 .857 or 11-2 .841. Either way you cut it, Les has had a successful run, but to use 10 wins as a standard is somewhat unfair, cause no coach has coached as many games in a season, that's all.

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I never said 10 wins was bad or unimpressive, just that its easier to win 10 when you play 13 or 14 games, than if you play 10 or 11

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Do you understand my reaction when someone regards a 10-2 regular season as disappointing?

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the quality that I perceived is not an 'if', it happened that way in 2009-09.

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But there still must be the "if" of whether it will continue; without it, observations on '08 and/or '09 are irrelevant to a projection for '10 (or a discussion thereof).

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LSU's down seasons boil down to mainly two things: Poor QB play (which all started when RP was booted off the team), and the O-line not being able to protect those inexperienced QB's.

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And herein lies the problem in all of our disagreements.

You see the problem with LSU as being centered around two areas that involve the 'players' not performing (the QB and the O-line). And while you are correct, this is only half or less than half of the problem. You give the coaches a complete pass in our lackluster past two years.

The other 50% or more, lies in the area of coaching. It is the responsibility of the highly paid coaches to get the performance out of those players, and when he can't, to find other players to replace them, not simply trotting the same old solution out there time after time and failing.

Watch the games with your eyes, not your stats and your calculators, and you will see that LSU today does NOT look like LSU 2003-2007. It just doesn't. Beyond just the QB and O-line problems, we are deficient in these areas:

-poor game planning and decision making
-poor play calling
-poor use of player personnel
-lack of motivation
-lack of leadership (both coach and players)

And while it's an intangible and does not directly affect the games, we also suffer from a poor reputation nationally among the voters because of Les Miles poor media persona. He comes across bad on TV and radio, and while he continues to recruit well, give him credit there, the perception of our program is that it has slipped from the elite status because the person running it is not credible.
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Upcoming season 11-2 or better. That's my story ---. Pete Fiutak didn't get into that so much. Not his job. He's still an excellent analyst of a team's strengths & weaknesses for the upcoming season. It's OK!! Wish I could fast forward to the game in Atlanta Dome. If we survive this, look out! I expect our Tigers will clean house with NC. No disrespect Tarheels, that's just my take.

TnA, others - thoughts - -

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Also, Nuts4LSU is becoming the best poster on this board.

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For those reasons I can't see LSU winning 10 or more games. I still think 8-4 or 7-5 is realistic.