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CFB Pick'em News: MasterofTigerBait's lead cut to one...dunkelman just one game back
Posted on 10/28/21 at 4:09 pm
Posted on 10/28/21 at 4:09 pm
MasterofTigerBait bounced back from a mediocre week 7 with a respectable 8-4 effort last weekend, but his lead still shrunk to just one game. Dunkelman went 10-2 to move into sole possession of 2nd place and put MasterofTigerBait on notice.
pbro62 sits in 3rd place overall (3 games back), while LSUBRO and a slew of others sit in 4th place (4 games back).
StadiumDormRat'72, who just last week sat alone in 2nd place, bit the big one and went 5-7 to drop to 10th place overall.
Two-time champion TedSticles continues to droop in the standings, posting an unspectacular 6-6 to drop to 544th place.
Crowd favorite GoldenBoy is quickly losing his luster as he posted an uninspiring 7-5 to move to 68th place.
Week 9 Picks:
Ole Miss at Auburn
Georgia vs Florida
Kentucky at Mississippi St.
Texas at Baylor
Iowa State at West Virginia
Iowa at Wisconsin
Michigan at Michigan State
Purdue at Nebraska
Penn State at Ohio State
UCLA at Utah
SMU at Houston
Virginia at BYU
Fresno State at San Diego State
There are six weeks left in the contest (we will be adding week 14 for the conference championship games), so it will be interesting to see if MasterofTigerBait can hold off everyone. The moment was too big for StadiumDormRat'72 but does dunkelman have the wherewithal to handle this much pressure?
LINK to Pick'em Central
pbro62 sits in 3rd place overall (3 games back), while LSUBRO and a slew of others sit in 4th place (4 games back).
StadiumDormRat'72, who just last week sat alone in 2nd place, bit the big one and went 5-7 to drop to 10th place overall.
Two-time champion TedSticles continues to droop in the standings, posting an unspectacular 6-6 to drop to 544th place.
Crowd favorite GoldenBoy is quickly losing his luster as he posted an uninspiring 7-5 to move to 68th place.
Week 9 Picks:
Ole Miss at Auburn
Georgia vs Florida
Kentucky at Mississippi St.
Texas at Baylor
Iowa State at West Virginia
Iowa at Wisconsin
Michigan at Michigan State
Purdue at Nebraska
Penn State at Ohio State
UCLA at Utah
SMU at Houston
Virginia at BYU
Fresno State at San Diego State
There are six weeks left in the contest (we will be adding week 14 for the conference championship games), so it will be interesting to see if MasterofTigerBait can hold off everyone. The moment was too big for StadiumDormRat'72 but does dunkelman have the wherewithal to handle this much pressure?
LINK to Pick'em Central
3
Posted on 10/28/21 at 4:14 pm to Chicken
How many people are left in Survivor?
Posted on 10/28/21 at 4:29 pm to CapperVin
243 users
Posted on 10/28/21 at 10:23 pm to Chicken
Two weeks ago, I was five games back, in 3rd place...
I moved up to 2nd, 2 games back, when MasterofTigerBait had a bad week.
Then I had a bad week, and now I'm 5 games back again - but now that's TENTH place! The leaderboard has gotten crowded...
I've done some "analytics" - gone back and checked the Pick'Em games against the oddsmakers- Of the 98 games selected, the favorite has won 62 of them. So, the favorite wins right at 70% of the time over-all, but the Pick'Em games are a little tighter- 63.3%....
As I've said before, the game is won or lost in correctly picking upsets--- If someone had selected ALL favorites every week except for correctly picking ONE upset each week, that would be 70-28....(second place) - Correctly pick TWO per week and you're running away with it at 78-20 (seven games ahead of the current leader!)
So about 34% of the games are upsets- You're picking 12 games and you pick the right four upsets you're 12-0; pick the wrong 4 and you are 4-8....
So if you pick a handful of upsets and hit half of them, it's a wash and your winning % is no better than playing safe and picking all favorites.... I think we all tend to pick MORE than 30-35% as upsets, and if we can go better than 50/50, then you're near the top of the board...
The odds of "staying ahead of the oddsmakers" are pretty much stacked against everybody- but I guess that's what makes it fun to try!
I moved up to 2nd, 2 games back, when MasterofTigerBait had a bad week.
Then I had a bad week, and now I'm 5 games back again - but now that's TENTH place! The leaderboard has gotten crowded...
I've done some "analytics" - gone back and checked the Pick'Em games against the oddsmakers- Of the 98 games selected, the favorite has won 62 of them. So, the favorite wins right at 70% of the time over-all, but the Pick'Em games are a little tighter- 63.3%....
As I've said before, the game is won or lost in correctly picking upsets--- If someone had selected ALL favorites every week except for correctly picking ONE upset each week, that would be 70-28....(second place) - Correctly pick TWO per week and you're running away with it at 78-20 (seven games ahead of the current leader!)
So about 34% of the games are upsets- You're picking 12 games and you pick the right four upsets you're 12-0; pick the wrong 4 and you are 4-8....
So if you pick a handful of upsets and hit half of them, it's a wash and your winning % is no better than playing safe and picking all favorites.... I think we all tend to pick MORE than 30-35% as upsets, and if we can go better than 50/50, then you're near the top of the board...
The odds of "staying ahead of the oddsmakers" are pretty much stacked against everybody- but I guess that's what makes it fun to try!
Posted on 10/29/21 at 7:43 am to Chicken
Somewhat unexpectedly, I find myself looking for my wherewithal.
Posted on 10/30/21 at 3:04 pm to dunkelman
Enjoy your "sole possession of second place" curse, ??
I sure did...
I sure did...
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