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Are The Book Lines Set By Computer?
Posted on 10/27/22 at 8:28 pm
Posted on 10/27/22 at 8:28 pm
I know the books try to keep the money even on both sides. And I’d guess a human sets the initial line.
Does a computer take over from there? It seems like you could easily write an algorithm that automatically moves the line when the money gets too high on one side.
Anybody know?
Does a computer take over from there? It seems like you could easily write an algorithm that automatically moves the line when the money gets too high on one side.
Anybody know?
8
Posted on 10/27/22 at 8:33 pm to JudgeHolden
Nobody but Vegas pros know exactly how the line is set.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 8:34 pm to JudgeHolden
I would assume that it's automated, to a large degree, now. However, I would think that the timing of how heavily they use the automation is important. And, they probably have humans driving the timing and weight of the automation. It's almost always going to be a win for the book, or they'll tweak the automation and find other humans. Businesses are going to business.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 8:43 pm to DRock88
What I’m wondering is if you can get an edge when it makes a sudden jump (or drop).
Posted on 10/27/22 at 8:49 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
I know the books try to keep the money even on both sides.
They’d love to do this but it’s extremely hard to execute in practice. Vast majority of games they have a side they would prefer to win
quote:
Does a computer take over from there? It seems like you could easily write an algorithm that automatically moves the line when the money gets too high on one side
Some books do have auto-movers but there’s definitely a team of people monitoring action (both at their book and others) and adjusting the line accordingly
Posted on 10/27/22 at 8:52 pm to DallasTiger45
quote:
Some books do have auto-movers but there’s definitely a team of people monitoring action (both at their book and others) and adjusting the line accordingly
So if I set up a program to monitor larger than expected moves, could I get an edge? Say the program was fast enough to bet the new line before a human could adjust it.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 9:05 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
What I’m wondering is if you can get an edge when it makes a sudden jump (or drop).
Don’t try too hard. There is a reason that Vegas has those huge buildings and we live in moderate size homes. :)
Posted on 10/27/22 at 9:06 pm to hophead
quote:
Don’t try too hard. There is a reason that Vegas has those huge buildings and we live in moderate size homes. :)
Good point!!!!
Posted on 10/27/22 at 9:53 pm to JudgeHolden
Not sure about your question, but I will say I chuckled all last week with the line opening with ole miss and moving to LSU and back and forth all week. Oh them the “smart” money came in late.lol
If you don’t remember LSU won by 25. Which makes it even more comical.
If you don’t remember LSU won by 25. Which makes it even more comical.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 10:02 pm to JudgeHolden
Perfect model for AI
If Guido is still book maker, most bettors should be betting with Guido.
If Guido is still book maker, most bettors should be betting with Guido.
Posted on 10/27/22 at 10:23 pm to hophead
Exactly. I have been to William Hills Risk management room, its much simpler....They have banks of guys(usually by region) who monitor the lines, news,and action etc...for movement or when to move the line to entice action to one side or the other. They actually have a line for us to call on larger bets to help manage the risk ie take bet or not. They also know the sharps money and where it's bet at all thier affiliated books. Pretty sophisticated operation, and yes there are computers involved but primarily for tracking purposes. All Odds on US sport betting are made by about 5 major books initially then movement becomes a bit more muddled by locals and news after that, but most books want to be close to the same odds.You might get a hook (.5 differential) from one book to another but not much more as it over or under vakues your risk. Sport betting odds at their core is risk management more than sports knowledge. This explains it simplistically;
LINK
LINK
This post was edited on 10/27/22 at 10:50 pm
Posted on 10/27/22 at 10:25 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
get an edge
Posted on 10/27/22 at 10:47 pm to JudgeHolden
Ask Sam Rothstein
Posted on 10/27/22 at 10:56 pm to JudgeHolden
quote:
So if I set up a program to monitor larger than expected moves, could I get an edge? Say the program was fast enough to bet the new line before a human could adjust it.
Not sure what you mean by “larger than expected moves”, but yea, people have bots that bet at books that are slow to move to align themselves with the broader market. It’s called chasing steam.
Now to do it artfully (and profitably) I’d guess it takes a lot of experience and/or a team full of people who know what they’re doing. It doesn’t sound like you have either of those things, so you may have to learn some expensive lessons along the way
Posted on 10/27/22 at 11:29 pm to Bigkat80
Got it.
It’s odd to me (pun intended) that Caesars has LSU +14 while other books have it as low as +12. And that has persisted for a full day.
We will see if the gap closes.
It’s odd to me (pun intended) that Caesars has LSU +14 while other books have it as low as +12. And that has persisted for a full day.
We will see if the gap closes.
Posted on 10/28/22 at 12:33 am to JudgeHolden
They are done by a company in NY , weekly by computers.
Posted on 10/28/22 at 6:29 am to JudgeHolden
Years ago 60 minutes had a segment in Vegas sports books, a big part of it was on the algorithms used to simulate games which helps give them info on setting lines. One of big casinos had some room full of the equipment used but would only let 60 minutes film the outside of the door
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