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re: Actual SEC Tiebreaker Breakdown Thread
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:47 pm to 225Tyga
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:47 pm to 225Tyga
quote:
Take all the SEC teams we've played and then take each one individually and add up all of their wins and losses vs other SEC schools and divide.
Do you include the losses that you gave yiur opponents in the calculation? Or does that matter?
So if we want LSU to be left out of SEC championship, we want our opponents to do bad and lose? But that could possibly knock us out of the playoff picture too…maybe?
2
Posted on 11/4/24 at 5:56 pm to SUB
quote:
Do you include the losses that you gave yiur opponents in the calculation? Or does that matter? So if we want LSU to be left out of SEC championship, we want our opponents to do bad and lose? But that could possibly knock us out of the playoff picture too…maybe?
This might just be too much for you to comprehend. Just sit back and enjoy the colors and noises and final scores
Posted on 11/4/24 at 6:10 pm to LSUTigresFan
Thanks!
Posted on 11/4/24 at 6:14 pm to SUB
quote:
Do you include the losses that you gave yiur opponents in the calculation? Or does that matter?
It doesn’t really matter. Since it’s a tiebreaker, that means all of the tied teams have the same SEC record. So if three teams are tied at 7-1, it means that their conference opponents are all 1-7 in their games against those specific teams.
In other words, the outcome of the tiebreaker will be the same regardless of whether you include the tied teams’ games against their opponents. It’s easier to just include them though.
quote:
So if we want LSU to be left out of SEC championship, we want our opponents to do bad and lose?
If you want LSU to win out but get left out of the SECCG, you’re looking for a huge long shot. It’s extremely unlikely to work out that way. So you may as well hope our opponents do well to help our playoff resume.
It’s also worth noting that there’s a pretty good chance that a 6-2 team gets into the SECCG. If you use the ESPN Analytics win probabilities (take them for what they’re worth) there’s only a ~38% chance that we get two 7-1 teams out of Texas, A&M, UGA, and Tennessee.
If LSU does drop another game, our only chance to make the CFP would be to win the SEC. So from that standpoint you should really be hoping all of our opponents continue to win other than A&M and whoever else would beat us.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 6:40 pm to LSUTigresFan
Why is this even a thing? Don't people know how to use that tiebreaker tool?
Posted on 11/4/24 at 7:41 pm to lostinbr
quote:
Luckily we can narrow this down a lot.
- Since we are considering a 3-way tie involving UGA and LSU,
since we're basing tis off a 3 way tie, you can remove some more of these games too.
for example in 3 way tie with Texas, they would also need to win out to even force the 3 way tie.
so you Automatically put Texas winning out and remove those games from the equation.
now you're down to only 9 games (which is "only" 512 possibilities)
quote:
- Oklahoma @ Missouri
- Missouri @ South Carolina
- Texas A&M @ Auburn
- Missouri @ Mississippi State
- Alabama @ Oklahoma
- Mississippi State @ Ole Miss
- Auburn @ Alabama
- Arkansas @ Missouri
- Tennessee @ Vanderbilt
Posted on 11/4/24 at 7:46 pm to Ebridg3
quote:
Why is this even a thing? Don't people know how to use that tiebreaker tool?
Not everyone probably knows of it and it is good to know the tool works the right way.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 7:57 pm to Nutriaitch
quote:
since we're basing tis off a 3 way tie, you can remove some more of these games too.
for example in 3 way tie with Texas, they would also need to win out to even force the 3 way tie.
so you Automatically put Texas winning out and remove those games from the equation.
now you're down to only 9 games (which is "only" 512 possibilities)
Funny you say that.. that’s actually where I started.
I changed it because by using all 12, you can use the same set of games to evaluate both potential tie scenarios (Texas and Texas A&M).
If you were actually going to try to run probabilities on everything it would be worthwhile to reduce as much as possible though, while probably using some other shortcuts while you’re at it.
For the purposes of just getting a list of potential upsets, it doesn’t really matter (since Texas is favored in all those games anyway).
Actually now that I think about it, I think it really is impossible for LSU to get left out in a 3-way tie with A&M and UGA. If A&M beats Texas, it would remove a win from UGA’s opponents while adding a win to LSU’s opponents. That means you would need all of those upsets I listed to happen. But if all those upsets happened (which include Auburn over Texas A&M) then it wouldn’t be a 3-way tie anyway. So I think we just ruled that out entirely.
Posted on 11/4/24 at 8:10 pm to lostinbr
quote:
Actually now that I think about it, I think it really is impossible for LSU to get left out in a 3-way tie with A&M and UGA.
I think you're right, but can't say for sure I've run every possible scenario.
I also think by Vandy beating Auburn all but eliminated the possibility of us missing out in a 3 way tie with Tennessee and A&M as well.
This post was edited on 11/4/24 at 8:12 pm
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