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re: 3rd and Chavis - How does Les deal with it?
Posted on 8/23/09 at 12:09 pm to AlwysATgr
Posted on 8/23/09 at 12:09 pm to AlwysATgr
quote:
Why don't we wait for the guy to call his first LSU game before we start giving 'advice?'
Bingo! I'm tired of all this horseshite speculation. Wait till this season starts.
Geez I can't imagine what was said about Saban and Miles before LSU got them? "They aren't good hires. Statistically speaking they blah blah blah. They can't win."
Let's see what Chavis does FIRST.
1
Posted on 8/23/09 at 12:15 pm to strikingoutsince87
quote:
Let's see what Chavis does FIRST.
well chavis isn't exactly an unknown
that's one of the main reasons we hired him
Posted on 8/23/09 at 12:33 pm to SlowFlowPro
Has anyone really taken the time to do an analysis of Chavis to see if the 3rd and Chavis is true? I mean the nationwide perception was that we didn't have the timeout during the AU game and that is now regarded as urban legend contributing to Les' gambling tendencies.
Similarly have two or three games contributed to Chavis being treated the same way?
Similarly have two or three games contributed to Chavis being treated the same way?
Posted on 8/23/09 at 12:38 pm to CalTiger
quote:
which was followed by him not going for 2
Why the Hell would he go for 2 in that situation???
1) It was a tie game and kicking the PAT has a higher success rate than 2pt conversions
2) There was only 1 second on the clock so it would have been impossible for them to kick a FG
This post was edited on 8/23/09 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 8/23/09 at 12:40 pm to CalTiger
Third and long is a catch 22. If we decide to bring a blitz package and it backfires, we as fans would be pissed. The same goes if we go conservative and still get burned. It all comes down to playing the percentages and that means playing conservative. If we have a good enough D, it will all workout. There really isn't an excuse to give up 3rd and longs.
Posted on 8/23/09 at 1:02 pm to Tmon225
quote:
It was a tie game
no it wasn't
quote:
and kicking the PAT has a higher success rate than 2pt conversions
yes it does
quote:
There was only 1 second on the clock so it would have been impossible for them to kick a FG
exactly why kicking the PAT was worthless. we were up 5 (29-24) after the TD. a FG was not a threat
a TD was a threat. there was 1 second, which means AU got a return, which means a TD was possible
a successful 2 point conversion means that if they did somehow get a miracle, we'd go to OT. if we don't convert the 2-point converstion, we're in the same spot that we would be going for the PAT (TD return = AU win)
Posted on 8/23/09 at 1:37 pm to AlwysATgr
A good, consistent pass rush on 3rd down will have a bigger impact on the success rate of 3rd down conversions.
Posted on 8/23/09 at 1:58 pm to SlowFlowPro
quote:
against UF? you mean when we were down and there wasn't any time left? he had to go for it on 4th
You obviously don't remember that game very well, or you're just pulling shite out of your arse again to pump up your post count.
The score was 24-21 with somewhere around 2 minutes to go in the fourth quarter, with LSU facing a 4th and 1 inside UF's 10 yard line. Les didn't HAVE to go for anything. A 27 yard field goal would have tied the game with less than 2 minutes to play. A very high percentage of FBS coaches (>90%) kick the FG in that situation. If Hester gets stuffed there, LSU loses that game and the National Championship. So, don't just blow that off.
The last second pass against Auburn wasn't as big of a gamble as most make it out to be, but it was a very smart play call with a senior QB. If he makes that call with Jarrett Lee, it wouldn't be nearly as smart.
As for not going for 2 afterwards, that was Les getting caught up in the moment just like when he tried to call timeout in 2005 against Tennessee after an interception. Has nothing to do with him being conservatitve or not.
Posted on 8/24/09 at 12:26 am to CalTiger
quote:
Has anyone really taken the time to do an analysis of Chavis to see if the 3rd and Chavis is true? I mean the nationwide perception was that we didn't have the timeout during the AU game and that is now regarded as urban legend contributing to Les' gambling tendencies.
Similarly have two or three games contributed to Chavis being treated the same way?
Someone posted some 3rd down conversion stats and Chavis's were noticeably worse than the rest of the SEC. I'm trying to find the link and will update if found.
Here's a couple of links that offer some insight:
LINK1
LINK2
My summary of the above links:
1) Tenn had been whipped into submission by UF (Spurrier and now Meyer). They no longer expected to stop them in any meaningful sense of the word.
2) Chavis had a bad 3rd down track record at Tenn that seemed to be propagated by his "mustang" package. There were some glaring examples that highlighted this and probably led to the nickname but the stats suggest it was more than a few isolated examples.
3) Chavis is an outstanding LB coach.
If Chavis will make some adjustments in his 3rd down approach our D could quickly return to dominance. If all Tiger fans do is compare Chavis to Malleveto then we'll have no complaints. He'll do better than that. On the other hand, if we compare our D to the '02-'06 teams (because the talent is comparable) then Chavis is going to have to change his 3rd down approach.
Just curious what other Tiger fans thought on this.
Posted on 8/24/09 at 1:03 am to AlwysATgr
quote:
Here's a couple of links that offer some insight:
LINK1
LINK2
My summary of the above links:
Thank you for the links and your summary but they still remain
1. Discussion on an UT forum about an ex-coach
2. Opinion formed from reading the links and similar discussions.
I apologize for reiterating the question but do we have any actual numbers to prove or support the 3rd and Chavis argument?
Fulmer has been on the warm and hot seat for quite a while now and he stuck with Chavis. For all the fun that we make of Fulmer - he is a NC winning coach and is not a complete idiot and neither is Les Miles. If fans have noticed this 3rd down issue - I am sure he must have and so would have Les.
I am sure that every coach has some liabilities and this could well be his. But are we assuming this liability due to second hand knowledge and improper statistical analysis of a small sample?
The vols have a big issue with losing to the gators and an equally big one losing to us in the SEC Champ game. This might always be on their mind - similar to how we can never forget the 16 Interceptions or the Bluegrass miracle or the AU referees.
If we accept that Les is a CEO who not only knows how to delegate work but also learns from mistakes to get the right person to delegate it to, then we have to wonder if our assumptions are faulty.
If indeed Chavis still has that issue then maybe Les (did /will) correct the issue by giving Cooper a bigger role in 3rd downs or by the sheer fact that our DL is going to be really better and hence pressuring more - I truly don't know but I am willing to live with this assumption more than the other one
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