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re: 2017 Season In Context

Posted on 1/2/18 at 3:23 pm to
Posted by Tiger1988
Houston
Member since May 2016
29659 posts
Posted on 1/2/18 at 3:23 pm to
Great work. Now post the Ed Orgeron only stats for 2016. It’s more shocking.
The 2015 season where Miles was fired then not fired was a MUCH tougher schedule and he still won 5 SEC games.

Here are the O only stats.

This was before the bowl game so ND brought the SoS up.

Posted by Message
Tiger1988
LSU Fan
Houston
Member since May 2016
5101 posts
Online

Will O be on the “Hot Seat” in 2018?Posted on 11/26/17 at 10:48 am
667

Don’t know... but here’s a look at what “Hot Seat” was in considered in 2015 versus the 2017 season...

For comparison sake we will use the 2015 Miles “Hot Seat” season where he went 8-3 in the regular season with the cancellation of the McNeese State game (a highly probable win)and finished 9-3
This is a good barometer for the program status:

In 2017, O is 6-2 with 2 wins against a team with a winning SEC record. Counting TAMU because they were 4-3 when we played them (ended at 4-4).

In 2015 Miles was 5-3 in SEC games. 3 of the five had a winning records TAMU and MSU were both 4-4. Again LSU gave them a loss so they were 4-3 without the LSU game.

If you drop the 4-4 teams it is eerily similar as follows with wins over 7 win teams:
In 2015 LSU beat UF who won the east.
In 2017, LSU beat AU who won the west.

The main difference between the 2 seasons was the Strength of Schedule
In 2017, the SoS is 49.
Massey Rating of 21

2015, SoS was Number 2
Massey Rating of 6

Here are other interesting stats. Have fun with these:

2016 Opponents Defensive Rankings (Stats Starting Mo game)
Wins
Total Defense: 71
Rush Defense: 81
Scoring Defense: 67

Opponents Records
Average wins: 7
Average Losses: 6

Losses
Total Defense: 4
Rush Defense: 20
Scoring Defense: 4

Opponents Records
Average wins: 12
Average Losses: 3

2017
Wins
Total Defense: 76
Rush Defense: 81
Scoring Defense: 74

Opponents Records (17 wins against non P5 and FCS schools)
Average wins: 5
Average Losses: 6

Losses
Total Defense: 10
Rush Defense: 3
Scoring Defense: 11

Opponents Records
Average wins: 9
Average Losses: 2

NOTE: The 2017 opponents have a combined 17 wins versus non P5 and FCS opponents.
NOTE2: For this exercise, UTChatt stats were not included.
NOTE 3: SINCE THE AUBURN GAME LAST YEAR, LSU HAS 1 WIN AGAINST A TEAM WITH A WINNING RECORD IN THE SEC. 1.


This post was edited on 1/2/18 at 3:36 pm
Posted by JohnnyU
Florida
Member since Nov 2006
12443 posts
Posted on 1/2/18 at 3:51 pm to
quote:

This year, however, our SOS is well outside the top 20 a


You play the teams in front of you. We also played an extra SEC road game. Our Tigers lost three first round draft choices and suffered incredible attrition on the o line. Then Guice and Key missed parts of the year with injuries. Anyone who saw the first half of the spring game knew we had issues on offense.
I doubt O was a good choice but his biggest mistakes thus far are not vetting Canada well enough and Mickey Joseph. Every coach has made bad hires including Saban.
Miles didn’t leave the cupboard bare but lacking quality depth in the trenches.
Everyone speaks of the Troy game but Saban lost to UAB and ULM. He also came damn close to losing to Troy in 04 just as Miles nearly shite the bed in 2008. Oh yeah Dabo has a losing record at Clemson his second year as HC.
Your stats are meaningless.
Posted by UpToPar
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2008
22868 posts
Posted on 1/2/18 at 3:54 pm to
quote:

Your stats are meaningless.



I was waiting for one of you to jump in here.
Posted by TutHillTiger
Mississippi Alabama
Member since Sep 2010
49830 posts
Posted on 1/2/18 at 4:50 pm to
Let me make it even easier to understand. LSU is traditionally a top 15 program when we finish in Top 15 the season was on par. When top ten or Top 5 we have good seasons, outside Top 25 very bad, 16-25 are disappointing seasons.

Some can be for injuries, bad luck, coaching changes etc. This year was do to coaching decisions both those made by this staff and it’s predecessors.

A win versus Notre Dame and we meet expectations which would have been good for Bebes first year. But we didn’t win but it was Florida 2016 all over again. We were clearly the better team and had better talent but found a way to lose the game. The offense was terrible at scoring points which is what you have to do to win games.

Hence, this staffs overall grade goes from a B-/C+ to D/C-. It’s barely passable. That’s how bad the bowl loss was. And don’t give me shite about meaningless games. Winning 10 games is huge and we even had a 100k bonus for Bebe, yet they played like shite, looked lost most of the game, and failed to make any significant adjustments. I don’t believe because it’s the playoffs suddenly they play great. Since 2012 LSU has been of the worst post season teams on the planet.

I hope they were all hung over or something because it was a pathetic embarrassment. Our first opponent, Miami beat this team like a bad child. Could have been by 60. All the trick plays they were running told you they didn’t think they could line up and beat us straight up. Yet they prevailed once again just like they did in they dysfunctional end of the Miles era.

We wound clearly be trounced out of any playoffs in round one too. LSU has forgotten or is incapable of winning big games. We are everyone’s lovable loser. We are good for giving playoff caliber teams a quailty win and that’s it. We have fallen as get up.

Even the Bama fans pity us now saying it was more fun, even though they occasionally lost when LSU was good. It is in fact, better for the SEC and college football for Bama to have real rivals.

But alas once again we manage to snatch defeat away from easy victory. And w ruin what could be a good season.

We hear promises of next year like the Sirens song and like Charlie Brown we line up to try to kick that football out of Lucy’s hand, hoping this time it would be different.

Apathy starts rearing it’s ugly head, and it’s the early 90s again.

I have supported Bebe and will continue to do so because he is our coach. However, Alleva needs to be removed yesterday and if there is not significant improvement next year other changes need to be made. It it is fire everyone, burn down the building and salt the ground so be it.

“There is no more try. There is only do or do not do”- Yoda
Posted by TigerFan4040
Member since Sep 2013
4390 posts
Posted on 1/2/18 at 4:51 pm to
Your research is up to par, baw.
Posted by Brazos
Member since Oct 2013
20557 posts
Posted on 1/2/18 at 4:53 pm to
Beautiful post
Posted by Starchild
Member since May 2010
13550 posts
Posted on 1/2/18 at 5:59 pm to
Solid research here OP and numbers that speak volumes. People will ignore, but fact we only beat one team with a pulse coupled with data like tells me all I need to know about this regime and where it’s heading. Sad days in BR
Posted by alumni95
Member since Jun 2004
7593 posts
Posted on 1/2/18 at 6:19 pm to
quote:

I didn’t realize the low winning percentage of the teams we beat


Seriously? All season the talk was how weak the SEC was and how we had just beaten teams that either fired or recently replaced their coach.
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