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re: 2013 LSU offense's misconceptions

Posted on 11/30/14 at 9:09 pm to
Posted by nf
Portland, OR
Member since Oct 2012
520 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 9:09 pm to
quote:

Wrong.


Nope. Limit the stats to in conference games only and see where we come out. Conference play is what matters, not stat padding against body bag opponents. When limited to in conference play only LSU was behind Alabama, A&M, Auburn and Missouri in YPA.
Posted by JaxTiger10
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2014
3893 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 9:14 pm to
quote:

So he set a record for a rate stat as long as you apply an arbitrary qualifier (which he just barely meets, at 203 carries)


Rare? Its what every sec rb adheres to.
quote:

We're meant to believe that he's better than Bo Jackson who had 7.7 on 158 carries? Or Felix Jones who had 7.6 on 154 carries? 

Take it up with the SEC home office.
quote:

Only a few SEC RBs last year had more than 200 carries, so it's a pretty arbitrary line to draw.

No its the line that was set a long time ago by sec officials.

Ive never seen a fan base so ignorant that they diminish huge accomplishments by their players to show how a coach sucks at offense. Last year was one of the best lsu offenses, may be the best, and their are posters downing it because it doesnt fit into their narrative of miles sucking.
Posted by JaxTiger10
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2014
3893 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 9:25 pm to
quote:

Conference play is what matters, not stat padding against body bag opponents. 


No sec team plays the same schedule. Bama's east opp were at Kentucky and Tenn while lsu played Florida and at uga . Auburn played at tenn and uga.
Who cared how many sec teams are in front of us. Doesnt change the fact that lsu finished very high in offensive stats last year.
Posted by harry coleman beast
Left Field
Member since Aug 2008
52214 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 9:25 pm to
2013 was tGOAT LSU offense. Most logical people would agree
Posted by JaxTiger10
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2014
3893 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 9:26 pm to
quote:

2013 was tGOAT LSU offense. Most logical people would agree


Im conversing with an lsu fan right now that's saying our 2013 offense wasnt special and it was meh.
Posted by SammyTiger
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2009
78159 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

Only a few SEC RBs last year had more than 200 carries, so it's a pretty arbitrary line to draw. And, again, Hill was very good, but the rushing offense as a whole was middle of the pack.


It isn't really arbitrary, centennials of carries are pretty standard measurements.

100 carries
200 carries
300 carries

a lot of stats requires a significant pool of data. Pretty much all averages in baseball have a requirement like this. You don't get to be the batting champion for going 1 for 1.

at 150 carries 1 50 yard carry bumps your average from 6.9 to 7.2.

at 200 a 50 yard carry bumps your average to 7.1

when you are dealing with hundredths of a yard carries matter. Obvious Bo jackson was special, but he had 6.4 yards a carry when he went over 200 carries. Hershel Walker never had a YPC over 6 but alway had 250 plus carries.

The more you run the ball, generally the lower you average gets.

Do you think Magee was better than Hill last year? he has a 7.2 YPC. but 89 carries.
Posted by boxcar willie
kenner
Member since Mar 2011
16106 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 9:47 pm to
quote:

Again our offense was great last year. If your defense is struggling ( which our 2013 defense did at times) the last thing you want to do is put them right back on the field by using HUNH.


Our defense finished 4th in overall defense. It was a weak defense by LSU standards but wasn't a week defense. Also the teams in the SEC that finished above LSU in scoring offense, total offense, and time of possession were not HUHN offenses. We finished 7th out of 14 teams in the SEC in total offense, none of those teams above LSU were HUHN offenses except Texas A&M. NO one is saying LSU had a crappy offense in 2013, just that it greatly underachieved due to the retro, unimaginative, uncreative scheme we run and ran in 2013.

This post was edited on 11/30/14 at 9:57 pm
Posted by Eden
Member since Nov 2014
477 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 9:53 pm to
quote:

finished 12th in the ncaa in yards per play
finished 9th in the ncaa in points per play
finished 7th in the ncaa in team passer rating
finished 3rd in the ncaa in passing yards per attempt
finished 3rd in the ncaa passing yards per completion
finished 1st in the ncaa in 3rd down conversion %

I think it would be more helpful to post the stats as compared to the rest of the conference; that's who we need to worry about more than the entire country (since we don't compete against 90% of the teams in the country, but we do compete against all the SEC teams).

Yards/Play: 2nd in conference (7.19; 1st was 7.28, 3rd was 7.08)
Points/Play: 3rd in conference (0.571; 1st was 0.612, 2nd was 0.590, 4th was 0.560)
Passing YPA: 1st in conference (10.40; 2nd was 9.33)
3rd Down %: 1st in conference (58.6%; 2nd was 50.7%)

I left out a couple because I don't think they're especially useful stats to be worth the time to add on to

I appreciate that people are skeptical about what they see and that they try to quantify the performance with stats, but they look at the wrong stats. It's disappointing that with a pseudo-NFL offense we couldn't win but 10 games last year, but the offense wasn't the problem.

Obviously 2014 won't come close to repeating what 2013 did, but let's hope in 2015 and beyond we can see more of that.
Posted by nf
Portland, OR
Member since Oct 2012
520 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:06 pm to
quote:

Rare? Its what every sec rb adheres to.


I can't find anywhere that indicates that the SEC recognizes this as a record, just some blurbs on ESPN. Please provide a link.
Posted by BayouBengal99
Crowley
Member since Oct 2007
9307 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:08 pm to
For me it's not so much the QB situation bc that is partly bad luck but it's even the run plays have zero imagination!!! This week was the first time I saw an actual game plan and I think this is all everyone wants to see is motions to confuse defenses and to utilize our talent the best LSU can this very moment. I can't believe that it took them all year to utilize a run game with some motion also?? The fact that we NEVER throw the ball down the middle is crazy and when we are actually having success running the ball they start throwing the ball?? I just don't understand the things that they do sometimes? If your going to run a slant at least teach the receiver to create seperation somehow, like fake one way then go the other way. Also I saw many times this year sooo much vacated space from blitzing that I can't believe they aren't taught to recognize this and run to that vacated area and the QBs to look for them in that area. To me it's simple things that need fixing but they never do!! It's like they coach just to our man the other guy instead of out think and out man the other guy. Idk man they need some kind of change?? This week was very intriguing for me to see the fakes and utilize 3 different people so the D had to worry about multiple things at once. I hope they continue it and start coaching these guys to play smart and physical!! Go Tigers!!
Posted by nf
Portland, OR
Member since Oct 2012
520 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:09 pm to
quote:

It isn't really arbitrary, centennials of carries are pretty standard measurements.


It's arbitrary because 200 carries is not materially different than 180 carries other than our preference for round numbers. It's also arbitrary in that a gap of 100 carries is relatively huge so the difference between 100 and 200 and 300 means that the strata are too broad to be meaningful. Rate stats will always be problematic due to questions of appropriate sample size, and Hill undoubtedly had a great year, but he wasn't even definitively the best back in the SEC that year.

And he still didn't make the rushing offense better than middle of the pack.
Posted by nm1230
Nashville, TN
Member since Oct 2011
698 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:10 pm to
quote:

Im conversing with an lsu fan right now that's saying our 2013 offense wasnt special and it was meh.


Let's talk about this year's offensive stats.

We get it. The offense last year was good but it was the exception not the rule under Miles. But unfortunately "we are rebuilding the defense" excuse in 2013. Is that right? Is there ever going to be a year LSU won't be rebuilding one side of the ball and that excuse won't apply? Or will it be every year?

This is why your savior gets paid at the top tier of his profession. So that there aren't huge gaps in recruiting/development/depth at any single position.

You keep trying to use the stats to convince people and you are missing the point. Miles hasn't recruited and developed a QB worth a damn and it's obvious to anyone that follows the team.

Posted by UL-SabanRival
Member since May 2013
4651 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:14 pm to
quote:

It isn't a matter of JUST talent. most kids don't come out of high school ready to compete against College players. Just physically are no where near developed at 18 as you are at 22. The exceptions are few and far between. There is a reason you have to play 3 years in college.

We were not loaded with freshmen on defense last year. Actually, they had a lot of experience, and a lot of talent, but apparently not enough for Chavis to put together a unit that could consistently stop anyone.
quote:

Compared to a lot of coaches they are still pretty good even after 2007. 38-20 in the SEC, and he has beaten a ton of ranked teams.

Well, in the last three years, Miles is 15-10 against the SEC, 8-7 against the top 25 and 3-6 against top 10 teams. That's not very impressive for the highest paid staff in college football.

And really, last year's historic offense was padded quite a bit with blowout wins over UAB, Kent State and Furman. They sucked against Ole Miss, didn't do shite against Florida (who sucked on offense, thank god) and were blown away by Alabama. And as usual, they struggled against Arkansas in the finale when Les' brain defaulted to Bo ball.
quote:

Michigan wanted him in 2007.

No, they didn't. Their alumni wanted nothing to do with him, and no offer was made, not even a fake one, a la Arkansas. You're right about him not being an nfl guy though, but I guess you've never heard of Chip Kelly, Pete Carroll or Jim Harbaugh.
Posted by BeeFense5
Kenner
Member since Jul 2010
42167 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:14 pm to
quote:

your savior


Woah. Cool it. We are talking about football here. No one is worshipping a football coach. Get some perspective. The frick is wrong with some of you?
Posted by nf
Portland, OR
Member since Oct 2012
520 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:16 pm to
quote:

No sec team plays the same schedule. Bama's east opp were at Kentucky and Tenn while lsu played Florida and at uga . Auburn played at tenn and uga. Who cared how many sec teams are in front of us. Doesnt change the fact that lsu finished very high in offensive stats last year.


Well we also don't play the same OOC schedule as anyone else, but you seem to think that those stats are meaningful. Conference play is literally what determines who wins the conference and SEC conference winners go to the NCG, so yes, I care about where we fit in the conference.

Also, Come on dude, Georgia finished 8-5 and Florida finished 4-8, neither of those were very good teams. And Georgia was actually one of the conference games that padded our stats because their pass defense was atrocious all year.

Best means superlative, number one, better than the rest. We were good, but not close to the best, even within our division. But I'd take that kind of performance every year without question. Sadly it's the exception, not the rule.
Posted by JaxTiger10
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2014
3893 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:18 pm to
quote:

We finished 7th out of 14 teams in the SEC in total offense, none of those teams above LSU were HUHN offenses except Texas A&M


Lsu finished 105TH in plays ran so out totals were low. Going by yard per play is a far better stat at showing how well an offense moved the ball. Also, just because a&m, auburnn and bama had better yards per play doesnt mean lsu's offense was bad.
Posted by JaxTiger10
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2014
3893 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:20 pm to
quote:

Well we also don't play the same OOC schedule as anyone else, but you seem to think that those stats are meaningful. 


Im using the entire season. Youre cherry picking games. Say what you want, in 2013 Only 12 offenses in the entire country had more yards per play than lsu.just because other sec offenses were good too it doesnt mean lsu's was bad.
Posted by JaxTiger10
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2014
3893 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:23 pm to
quote:

The offense last year was good but it was the exception not the rule under Miles


What? Our 2006,2007,2009, 2011 2013 passing games were good.
quote:

et's talk about this year's offensive sta

You mean the offense with the youngest skill position players in the sec?The scheme lsu runs has proven it can be successful , which is something you argue against.
Posted by JaxTiger10
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2014
3893 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:26 pm to
quote:

's arbitrary because 200 carries is not materially different than 180 carries other than our preference for round numbers. It's also arbitrary in that a gap of 100 


This is laughable. Every single rb in sec history has had to adhere to this criteria and no rb in sec history did it better than Jeremy Hill. Are you even an lsu fan?
Posted by JaxTiger10
Murfreesboro,TN
Member since Aug 2014
3893 posts
Posted on 11/30/14 at 10:29 pm to
quote:

can't find anywhere that indicates that the SEC recognizes this as a record, just some blurbs on ESPN. Please provide a link.


Are you really suggesting the ssc doesnt require minimum carries for records? This is common knowledge. If it wasnt Brad Win would have a career yards per carry higher than Bo , Herscheln and barry sanders, COMBINED
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