re: Ole Miss will lose to UGA as well.

quote:

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UGA
UK
Ole Miss

All have a very real chance of being 10-2, and LSU will be the 4th SEC team for the committee if that happens.

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Let’s put aside just for one second that this scenario puts LSU and Ole Miss in the SECCG. (I am going off other people’s work on the tie breakers, not my own. But there’s only 1 way for LSU, Ole Miss, and Georgia to all finish 10-2. LSU and Ole Miss win out. That includes a Georgia loss to Ole Miss. So mathematically, there is literally only 1 avenue for those 3 teams to be 10-2. There are 4 different ways Kentucky could wind up 10-2, including them winning their next 3 SEC games and losing to Louisville, which would have them as the only 8-1 SEC team and put them in the SECCG, so it would screw up the LSU Ole Miss SECCG matchup. It’s probably the least likely way UK winds up 10-2, but it’s a way to consider nonetheless.)

So, again, let’s just take the SECCG out of this for one second. Pretend it’s not even being played. I agree with you that LSU would not get an at large bid over either 10-2 Ole Miss or Kentucky who both beat us head to head. But I don’t necessarily agree that Georgia would get the nod over us. They could not put a 10-2 Georgia in over a 10-2 Ole Miss team that beat them. So in your scenario, 10-2 Ole Miss and 10-2 Kentucky would definitely be the top 2 SEC teams for the committee. But why would Georgia be ahead of us? Same record, but our 2 losses would have been to the top 2 SEC teams on the road. Georgia’s would include a home loss to Auburn. AND, Georgia’s 2 losses would also have BOTH been more recent than LSU’s last ONE.

So, I think the committee would almost have to have us ahead of Georgia. I can’t see any legitimate argument otherwise. But for the sake of argument, I’ll concede that there is one, and 10-2 LSU does fall behind the other 3 for the committee. All your posts, don’t say, but suggest, that the SEC wouldn’t get more than 3 teams in? We got 5 teams in last season and this year we’ve added a 9th conference game and the committee is supposed to be factoring in strength of schedule metrics and weighing it more.

So you must be worried that this year will have less available spots. Which is fair. But I think we’ll eventually see that the losses yesterday of BYU and Texas Tech will be incredibly beneficial to the non Big 12 teams fighting to get in. Except Notre Dame. That BYU loss yesterday made the hole in their resume even bigger. I think they have to win out and finish 11-1 with a win over Miami to get in now.

Regardless, who we pull for has no bearing on who wins, so all this is just a fun mental exercise. But it’s more fun than I thought and making me rethink my position on the expanded playoffs. It’s reminding me of the BCS era and how attuned we all were to our opponents’ games, and our opponents’ opponents’ games. (Shout out to LSUMatt).