How early is too early to draft Mahomes?

In a superflex or 2 QB league a first round pick is defensible. Otherwise I would probably take him 3 or 4, but he will probably go 2 or 3.

I got him yesterday in a 6 pt TD league for $17. Also gets .3 pets for completion and .2 pts per rushing yard

In a 6 pt passing TD league....

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scored 417 points last season. Next was Saquon at 385. Don’t see why he couldn’t do that again. I don’t have a problem with him in the 1st. 

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That's not the way most people look at it though. It's the difference in the rb/wr you pass up vs the difference in Mahomes to a later qb. I wouldn't think about it before the 3rd round personally but I also don't expect to end up with him on any of my teams.

I'd take a shot in the early third based upon what's left on the board. He's a difference-maker that can keep you in contention any week.

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Probably will have close to 50:TDS passing and running.

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History says no but I guess there’s a small chance he could

I don’t see how you could take Mahomes in the first 3-4 rounds unless you play in a 2QB or superflex league.

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50 TDs again? Nah, probably not.

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I understand the analysis of comparing the value of going QB then WR in the back half of the draft as opposed to WR then QB later (no one is considering taking him before the elite RBs), but I just don’t understand why the regression is always assumed when doing that analysis.


So he likely doesn’t throw 50 TDs (although I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if he did that or even more), but we’re still looking at 40+ most likely, and I actually think his yardage numbers go up and INTs go down.

He’s still on an upward trajectory imo, and the situation for the team is as well. With a full year as starter under his belt and another offseason to learn I think he’s going to be even better.


Look at Rodgers from 08 to 09 after his break out. Or Brees after he went for 5000 in 2011 and then basically continued that for the next five years in a row.


I see no reason Mahomes won’t post similar numbers across the board with a highly motivated Tyreek and healthy Kelce and Watkins.


So I think stacking him with another potential elite WR in Rd 2 like AB or Juju is completely valid even if it is outside the box.


Going against conventional chalk is the only thing that makes snake drafts fun to me at this point, and there aren’t too many easier ways to do that than with a QB that is set up like Mahomes is this year imo

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Got a full season in Andy’s offense under his belt.

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And defenses also have a year's worth of film to better prepare for him.

Mahomes led the NFL last year in TDs thrown per attempt at 8.6% of his attempts were TDs. Next closest was Russell Wilson at 8.1 (also insanely efficient), then it plummets to 6.9 (Fitzmagic ) and Brees, the most accurate QB of all time at 6.5. The NFL average is somewhere in the 5s.

So, a reasonable person would expect Mahomes to come back down to earth, just a little. If we say he has a 7% TDs/attempt, which would still have him as a top 3 QB in that category for the year most likely, he would have 40 TDs instead of 50. And that's assuming 580 pass attempts, which was the 7th most attempts last year. If they go a little more balanced and his pass attempts come down AND his TD percentage creeps down a bit too, then you're going to be pretty disappointed in his draft cost. If he attempts just 2 less passes/game (34 attempts instead of 36), and his percentage is 7% instead of 8.6%, then he's throwing 38 TDs...still very good, but not nearly those unrealistic numbers people are expecting.

ETA: Also can expect his yards might go down too. He was 2nd last year just over 5,000. That's freaking hard to keep doing, much less improve upon .

So to sum, can he repeat? Yeah, possibly. Is it likely? No.