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re: 2022 NFL News and Notes Thread
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:42 pm to TigerLunatik
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:42 pm to TigerLunatik
quote:
BREECE HALL, RB, NEW YORK JETS
[FPG: 13.8, XFP: 16.2, DIFF: -2.4]
Hall is looking like a priority trade target, a top positive regression candidate, and one of the top DFS values on the week.
Hall currently ranks 19th in FPG (13.8), but also 8th in XFP/G (16.2).
He ranks 2nd among all RBs in targets per game (7.0), behind only Austin Ekeler (7.5). And that’s also sort of underselling it. Hall is averaging 0.5 deep targets per game; the same amount as D.J. Moore and Drake London. And he’s averaging 31.3 air yards per game. That’s more than double the next-closest RB. And that would also be the most by any RB since at least 2007, on pace to break David Johnson’s record of 487 air yards in 2016 (30.4 air yards per game).
Hall only ranks 36th in snap share (48%) and 35th in RB carry share (49%), but he ranks 7th among all RBs in target share (13.4%). So, at the very least, it appears he’s cemented his role as the team’s preferred pass-catching back. This is important because, remember, targets are worth 2.5X as much as a carry for RBs in PPR leagues (and 3.0X outside of the red zone). And then there’s massive upside beyond that if he continues to steal more work as a runner – and it certainly does appear as though we’re headed in that direction.
Last week Hall earned 17 of 26 carries (65%) and 6 of 9 targets out of the backfield (67%). This was over double Hall’s prior high in carries, and the first time he’s out-carried Michael Carter this season. Hall’s snap share has now climbed in three straight weeks: 26% to 51% to 67% in Week 4.
In back-to-back games, Hall has finished top-5 among all RBs in XFP. Over this span, he’s handled 87% of the backfield XTD, 70% of the backfield XFP (11th-most), and 26.8% of the team XFP (6th-most).
In the near term, Hall is your No. 1 volume-related value at the RB position (3.0X), priced as just the RB29 on DraftKings ($5,400). He gets a neutral at-worst matchup this week, against a backup QB and a Miami defense that’s given up the 3rd-most receiving FPG to opposing RBs (13.3).
In the longer term, Hall really could be a league-winner if this usage trend continues
Breece Hall about to be a dog
1
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:46 pm to CBandits82
quote:
Kyle Pitts has basically had two good games in his career for fantasy at this point. And they came in Week 5 vs. the Jets (26.9 FP) and in Week 7 vs. the Dolphins (23.3 FP) last year.
Across his 18 other career games – excluding the Jets and Dolphins’ contests from last year – Kyle Pitts is averaging 8.4 fantasy points per game.
Since his blowup game against the Dolphins in Week 7 last year, Pitts is averaging 7.8 fantasy points per game across his last 15 contests.
Pitts has finished as a top-10 fantasy TE just five times in his 21 game career.
Now, to be fair, Pitts isn’t a ponzi scheme. He’s a good player who is not being used well…
I have no good answer as to why, but Kyle Pitts only ran a route on 65% of the Falcons pass plays in Week 4.
current regime just not using Pitts how we wanted, not sure itll change
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:48 pm to CBandits82
quote:
I’d love to blame the coaching staff for the offense's limitations in the opening month, but I believe most of the blame is on Baker Mayfield. He is the worst starting QB in football at this point. He’s worse than Justin Fields, too, because at least Fields is athletic and can run.
Mayfield’s completion rate is -7.8% below expectation. Only Fields (-12.1%) is worse.
A whopping 62.5% of Mayfield’s total passing yardage has come after the catch, which is the second-highest rate in the league.
Mayfield leads the league in percentage of throws that are batted down at the line of scrimmage (8%).
Mayfield has completed just 51.9% of his throws on plays where he has not been blitzed, which is last in the league.
Mayfield has taken a sack on 7.7% of his dropbacks when he has not been blitzed, which is fifth-from-last.
DJ Moore ranks 67th-of-73 WRs in catchable targets (62.1%) among receivers with at least 15 targets.
However, Moore’s average depth of target (7.4 yards) is much lower than the six receivers with worse catchable target rates. He’s easily dealt with the worst QB play of any starting WR so far.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:49 pm to CBandits82
DJ Moore is fricked unless Darnold gets healthy
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:50 pm to CBandits82
quote:
Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have played 21 full games together.
Higgins is averaging 16.2 FPG while Chase is averaging 17.6 FPG in those games.
Higgins has 166 targets while Chase has 170.
Higgins has 110/1688/10.
Chase has 109/1819/13.
Higgins has cleared 60+ yards 14 times in his last 17 games.
Chase has cleared 60+ yards nine times in his last 17 games.
Tee Higgins is a baller
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:50 pm to CBandits82
quote:
David Njoku is fifth among all TEs in route share (routes divided by team pass plays) at 79%. That trails only Mark Andrews (91%), Dalton Schultz (83%), Travis Kelce (81%), and Tyler Higbee (81%).
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:51 pm to CBandits82
quote:
Cooper Rush has attempted 102 passes, targeting CeeDee Lamb 33 times for a ridiculous 32.3% target share.
Lamb has 21/259/2 across 13 quarters of work with Rush.
Lamb leads all receivers in first-read target share (45%) over the last three weeks.
we may not want Dak back
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:52 pm to CBandits82
quote:
omeo Doubs and Allen Lazard emerged as the Packers clear-cut top WRs last week. Doubs ran 32 routes (87% share) and Lazard ran 29 routes (78%).
Aaron Rodgers’ trust in Romeo Doubs is clearly growing. Doubs leads the team in targets (16) and first read target share (29.5%) over the last two weeks.
The Packers are working to get the ball in Doubs’ hands as 37.5% of his targets have been designed for him over the last two weeks.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:55 pm to CBandits82
quote:
but a trend is emerging that Rhamondre Stevenson is the clear-cut lead back…
Over the last three weeks, Stevenson has out-snapped Damien Harris by a 33 to 21 margin when the Patriots have been leading.
Stevenson has out-snapped Harris by a 55 to 30 margin when trailing over the last three weeks.
get him now
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:56 pm to CBandits82
quote:
That didn’t take long. Breece Hall has officially broken through and taken over this backfield. His snaps (27% > 51% > 66%) have taken huge leaps over the last three weeks.
Hall handled 59% of the carries in Week 4, a season-high by far.
Hall also took over on passing downs, running 26 routes to Carter’s 15.
League winner
Posted on 10/5/22 at 9:57 pm to CBandits82
quote:
After a bad Week 1, Robert Woods has a strong 26% target share over his last three games. He’ll be a huge part of this passing attack with Treylon Burks (foot) sidelined.
Posted on 10/5/22 at 10:14 pm to TigerLunatik
I need more positive news than that Lunatik!
Posted on 10/6/22 at 12:38 am to CBandits82
Pitts needs a real quarterback
Posted on 10/6/22 at 3:00 am to Ag_16
quote:
need more positive news than that
It was just a Wednesday practice. Not important for St. Brown. Would like to see him do something limited on Thursday. But if he can get on the practice field Friday he's likely to give it a shot Sunday.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 3:48 am to CBandits82
I didn’t understand the hype surrounding dj moore coming into the season at all. A lot of “experts” had him as a break out candidate including Matt Berry. It’s like they all forgot how irrelevant baker made obj. He’s horrible.
This post was edited on 10/6/22 at 3:48 am
Posted on 10/6/22 at 4:28 am to cfish140
quote:
Aaron Rodgers trust in Romeo Doubs is clearly growing. Over the last two weeks, Doubs...
– Leads the team in total targets (16)
– Leads the team in routes (63)
– Also leads the team in first read target share (29.5%)
via @FantasyPtsData
Posted on 10/6/22 at 9:08 am to TigerLunatik
Kamara tells reporters "I will be out there" in week 5.
Thanks a lot dude
Thanks a lot dude
Posted on 10/6/22 at 10:06 am to skewbs
quote:
The #Lions will likely be without RB D'Andre Swift (shoulder) for this week's game against the Patriots, per source. Plan is still for him to return after the bye (Week 7), barring unforeseen development.
-Jeremy Fowler
Posted on 10/6/22 at 11:10 am to CBandits82
quote:
Tee Higgins is a baller
Traded for him this morning.
Posted on 10/6/22 at 11:24 am to CBandits82
I currently have Elijah Mitchell in my IR spot, but I also have C. Patterson…
Are y’all holding onto Mitchell? Worth a stash? I’m trying to figure out what to do with these two guys.
Are y’all holding onto Mitchell? Worth a stash? I’m trying to figure out what to do with these two guys.
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