re: 2012 TDBL In-Season Thread: Period 3

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Lonnie Chisenhall's poor performance at the plate this spring has cost him. The Indians announced Tuesday that they optioned the third base prospect to Triple-A Columbus. Jack Hannahan is expected to get the bulk of work at third base with Chisenhall in the minors.

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The Rays finalized their rotation Tuesday by tabbing Jeff Niemann as the fifth starter. Niemann will join James Shields, David Price, Matt Moore and Jeremy Hellickson in the rotation.

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1. Justin Upton, RF, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age: 24

I'd argue Upton is the most talented high school product to enter pro ball in the last decade when considering the player he was on draft day, the player he has become (so far) in the majors, and the player he's likely to be once he reaches his peak. Even now, entering his age-24 season, he's among the top dozen or so position players in the game, and led all 25-and-under position players last year in FanGraphs' WAR. He can hit, get on base, hit for power (I still think there's a 40-homer season or two in that bat), field and throw, and I would be shocked if he didn't win, or at least deserve, an MVP award before the decade is out.



2. Andrew McCutchen, CF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 25

McCutchen wanted the Justin Upton contract, and after months of demurring the Pirates finally gave it to him, a move I doubt they will regret for one second of the six years (that's just over 189.3 million seconds) on the deal. McCutchen is an above-average defender in center and a plus runner who works the count well and generates tremendous bat speed with his wrists, resulting in easy power that will reach 30 home runs in the next year or two. You build a championship lineup around a player like McCutchen, and Pirates fans should be very glad he's not going anywhere any time soon.

3. Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles
Age: 25

The Orioles may not be headed in the right direction, but Wieters certainly is, having improved his defense substantially over the past two years while starting to put the lie to whispers about his bat being just "slider speed." The switch-hitting catcher was destroyed by right-handed pitching last year (.662 OPS against righties), but his platoon splits earlier in his career weren't so severe and he has always had similar swings and a good approach from both sides of the plate. At some point in the next two years he'll take another big step forward on offense and become a legitimate MVP candidate for many of the next half-dozen seasons.

4. Giancarlo Stanton, RF, Miami Marlins
Age: 22

Stanton hit 34 home runs last year at age 21, turning 22 in November, while getting on base at a strong clip (.356 OBP) and providing above-average defense. Only six players aged 21 or younger have hit more home runs than Stanton did; the first three (Eddie Matthews, Mel Ott and Frank Robinson) are in the Hall of Fame, the next two (Albert Pujols and A-Rod) are headed there, and the last (Hal Trosky) hit .313/.379/.551 before migraines forced him to retire during his age-28 season. Even if Stanton has less improvement ahead of him than the typical 21-year-old -- it's not as if Stanton needs to grow into his power -- he's already close to the top tier of position players, and his plate discipline keeps getting better.

5. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals
Age: 22

I think Hosmer's about to break out into the top 10-15 offensive players in the game, with an approach well beyond his years and power that, while not Stanton-esque, should result in 30 bombs in 2012 or 2013 at worst. He's a smart, diligent player who has shown improvements even when challenged with quick promotions up the ladder. And if he ends up moving to right field, a position I have always believed he could handle due to his athleticism and plus arm, he's even more likely to justify this placement.

6. Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 26

Longoria is the oldest position player on this list, but as a plus defender at a skill position, he strikes me as a good bet to hold much of his value into his early 30s, much like Beltre, a plus defender at the same position, has been able to do. Longoria's biggest challenge will be staying healthy, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the baserunning value he showed in 2009-10 fade or disappear over the next five years, but his power, patience and glove all should make him a perennial MVP candidate.

7. Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels
Age: 20

He's ready for the majors now, and better than at least one of the Angels' incumbent outfielders, although a spring training illness probably ended any chance he had to unseat Vernon Wells or Torii Hunter this March. Trout's long-term outlook hasn't changed: He's a plus defender in center (assuming Peter Bourjos ends up traded) who gets on base, changes innings with his explosive speed, and should hit for a high average with plenty of doubles and 20-plus homers. He's absurdly talented and just needs an opportunity in the big leagues.

8. Starlin Castro, SS, Chicago Cubs
Age: 22

We know Castro is an extremely gifted hitter with the potential to win the batting-average title (please, it doesn't make a player the "batting champion" any more than frying an egg makes you Top Chef) and the potential for a 50 doubles/20 homers peak. And we know he'd probably be a solid-average defender at third or at second if he had to move off short, which, while not a lock, is at least a possibility after a year and a half of below-average defense. As long as he stays in the infield, his bat is going to keep him in the upper echelon of big leaguers, and while he's not any kind of a runner, he's athletic enough that he might become a fringe-average (or better) defender at short, at which point he'll supplant Derek Jeter as the "player whose glove is most overrated because of his bat."

9. Bryce Harper, RF/CF, Washington Nationals
Age: 19

If Harper plays center in the majors -- he's athletic enough to do it but lacks experience -- he probably belongs higher on this list, because solid defensive center fielders who drop 40 bombs with good OBPs are pretty unusual birds. Harper has the arm to shut down the running game from right, but he could turn into Jim Edmonds in center, and by 2017 he should have more than 2,000 major league at-bats under his belt to allow him to make some needed adjustments against better off-speed stuff. He's on the list no matter what position he plays, but I'm excited about the possibility that he'll end up manning center at least for most of his 20s.

10. David Price, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 26

Injury rates and short peaks mean that a reasonable list of the most valuable players (assuming we're looking over more than one season) should skew toward bats over arms, which is why I'm including just one pitcher here, and not even the best young pitcher in the majors right now (that's Clayton Kershaw) in recognition of the fact that the best arms today typically aren't the best in five years.

It could be Kershaw, or King Felix, or Madison Bumgarner, or perhaps a 32-year-old Cole Hamels (who has that plus-plus changeup he could probably ride to age 40) on this list instead. Perhaps it'll be Price's teammate Matt Moore, the best pitching prospect in baseball, or a then-24-year-old Dylan Bundy. But I'll come in down the middle with Price, formerly the top pitching prospect in baseball, who has shown gradual improvements over three years in the majors and still has the size, durability, intelligence and repertoire that made him so promising coming out of Vanderbilt. I believe there's a Cy Young Award in his future, and I trust the Rays' track record of keeping pitchers healthy to let Price reach that ceiling.

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All are on rosters already

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