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#1 Overall Pick = the worst

Posted on 8/14/17 at 7:11 pm
Posted by olegreg
Denham Springs
Member since Dec 2009
610 posts
Posted on 8/14/17 at 7:11 pm
Does anyone else feel that the #1 overall pick is the worst draft position?

My main league is a 12 man standard with a snake draft. There are no trading of draft picks (I proposed that this year but it was vetoed)and the draft order is determined by the preceding years final standings. Further, the winner of the previous season is not allowed to choose his preferred draft position. I won the league last year, so naturally I have the #1 pick.

This isn't the first time that I've had this spot in a league, but it always presents the same problem; how to maximize your roster while being essentially handcuffed. Yes, you get the "top player" which is negligible, arguably, as the top 5 are generally interchangeable. Then you have to wait 22 picks until your #2 pick, meaning essentially all top tier talent (and even #2 or #3 talent in a good league with no "stupid 1st/2nd rd picks") are gone. I feel that you have to start to reach with every pick after your #1 pick.

Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278499 posts
Posted on 8/14/17 at 7:24 pm to
its only the worst for tards that over think it.


quote:

Then you have to wait 22 picks until your #2 pick, meaning essentially all top tier talent (and even #2 or #3 talent in a good league with no "stupid 1st/2nd rd picks") are gone. I feel that you have to start to reach with every pick after your #1 pick.



there are 7-8 must have guys. Meaning no one is going to get 2 of them.

then from 8 until about 35 you're dealing with a similar tier of players.
Posted by bbeck
Member since Dec 2011
14562 posts
Posted on 8/14/17 at 7:46 pm to
quote:

I won the league last year, so naturally I have the #1 pick.
thats the most unnatural thing I've ever heard of.
Posted by Peazey
Metry
Member since Apr 2012
25418 posts
Posted on 8/14/17 at 7:50 pm to
Draft your Leveon Bell or David Johnson and be happy about it. You have to be able to hit on uncertain players players later in the draft in order to win a league regardless. Having the closest things to a sure thing elite player is nothing but an advantage.

Also, I have no idea why there would be rules against trading draft positions. It makes no sense in any way at all to me.
This post was edited on 8/14/17 at 7:52 pm
Posted by OneMoreTime
Florida Gulf Coast Fan
Member since Dec 2008
61834 posts
Posted on 8/14/17 at 7:55 pm to
quote:

the draft order is determined by the preceding years final standings. Further, the winner of the previous season is not allowed to choose his preferred draft position. I won the league last year, so naturally I have the #1 pick
Posted by WicKed WayZ
Louisiana Forever
Member since Sep 2011
31601 posts
Posted on 8/15/17 at 1:40 am to
Follow Les on this one.


Take DJ or Leveon and be happy. There should be plenty of players left to choose from. And think about this, Zeke Elliot might fall to the late 2nd round. Imagine getting Leveon and Zeke AND THEN turning around and picking again.


The first 2 rounds are key because you can lose your league by drafting busts. You HAVE to hit on those first two picks
Posted by WhoDatTigahsTampa
S.E.LA2WestFL
Member since Oct 2013
2281 posts
Posted on 8/15/17 at 6:54 am to
We actually had our draft spot selection yesterday and the first two picks taken were 1 and 2. Was somewhat surprised, but this year over any other of recent memory it seems like a lot of fantasy analysts are saying it's not a bad deal if you can get DJ or Bell, especially DJ.
Posted by BigOrangeVols
Knoxville
Member since Jul 2015
3067 posts
Posted on 8/15/17 at 7:04 am to
I love having the #1 pick this year in my 10-team league. Guarantees me a stud at RB and then I can turn around and get someone like Cooper and one of Fournette/Miller/Gurley who I like this year. And maybe even Zeke with the gamble that his suspension gets reduced.
Posted by CBandits82
Lurker since May 2008
Member since May 2012
54115 posts
Posted on 8/15/17 at 9:47 am to
quote:

I won the league last year, so naturally I have the #1 pick.

thats the most unnatural thing I've ever heard of 



Posted by olegreg
Denham Springs
Member since Dec 2009
610 posts
Posted on 8/15/17 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

there are 7-8 must have guys. Meaning no one is going to get 2 of them. then from 8 until about 35 you're dealing with a similar tier of players.

I would agree that the top half of the first round has the most desirable players, however, the rest of the first round and most of the second round have top talent. By this I mean there is no stretch when you draft one of these guys. By the time you get to the bottom of the second round in a 12 man league, the stud RB1/WR1 are no where to be found leading to drafter other players too high to compensate.

quote:

thats the most unnatural thing I've ever heard of.

I would agree. I believe the commish viewed this as an extra reward for the winner/playoff teams and an incentive to not draft a shite team. I don't agree with, nor like it.

quote:

Draft your Leveon Bell or David Johnson and be happy about it. You have to be able to hit on uncertain players players later in the draft in order to win a league regardless. Having the closest things to a sure thing elite player is nothing but an advantage. Also, I have no idea why there would be rules against trading draft positions. It makes no sense in any way at all to me.

I agree that you have to be able to hit on uncertain players later, but doing so with your 2nd pick is a problem as the 1's and 2's have all gone. This will lead to reaching for other players.

There's no rule against it, its just that this league has never established it. I called for a vote and it was close but didnt pass as some were unwilling for change.

quote:

Take DJ or Leveon and be happy. There should be plenty of players left to choose from. And think about this, Zeke Elliot might fall to the late 2nd round. Imagine getting Leveon and Zeke AND THEN turning around and picking again. The first 2 rounds are key because you can lose your league by drafting busts. You HAVE to hit on those first two picks

My point exactly, the first two picks are essential meaning my second pick will really be a third rounder and not a RB1/WR1 like every other team. A person drafting in the middle of the draft will be able to secure either two stud RB's/WR's or one of each. With the #1 pick, I will be able to draft the top player, which will have only a marginal difference (excluding DJ 2016 campaign, which brings up the issue of going with Bell or DJ), and then my second pick will be far less valuable than theirs.

And I doubt Zeke will fall that far because there is a huge Dallas fan in my league (who happened to draft him last year as well), and also a sports agent (Dak's agent)that always drafts suspended players destined to return (drafted Bell very early last year).
Posted by Lester Earl
Member since Nov 2003
278499 posts
Posted on 8/15/17 at 4:01 pm to
quote:

however, the rest of the first round and most of the second round have top talent.


Who are we talmbout here?

I see risks like Gronk & AJ Green both coming off injury

I see Ty Hitlton there with Lucks uncertainty

I see career year guys like Devonta Freeman, Ajayi, Melvin Gordon, demarco Murray & jordon Howard sitting there and I'm not itching to take any of those guys with a 1st or 2nd pick. Murray & Freeman in particular are in to split more carries this year with their respective RB2.


Then I see a guy like Michael Thomas going 15 overall, that's a steal. He should be going top 10

Dez , Nuk & amari cooper are being under drafted. Pryor is being under drafted. Fournette & Ty Mont are being under drafted.

if you pick #1 you can clean up back at pick 22-23 with guys that are just as talented as the guys going in late 1st early 2nd.

Give me Lev Bell, Amari & LF and watch me wreck shite
Posted by WicKed WayZ
Louisiana Forever
Member since Sep 2011
31601 posts
Posted on 8/15/17 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

Give me Lev Bell, Amari & LF and watch me wreck shite



Pretty much this. Or you could take Bell, LF7, take a risk on Elliot and not be touched in your league if his suspension is reduced or if he decides to sue the league like Brady did.



Course if his suspension is upheld, you take Amari or TY or someone like that.
Posted by BigOrangeVols
Knoxville
Member since Jul 2015
3067 posts
Posted on 8/16/17 at 6:24 am to
I have to disagree with you here. In my 10-team league I have the first pick and it guarantees me either DJ or Bell and then a WR (In mocks I've been able to pull Dez, TY, Cooper) and a RB (Fournette, Gurley, Miller).

In my standard league this is a massive advantage; last year the difference between the "Elite" WR at 1 and the #10 wr was 50 pts. Whereas the #1 Rb vs #10 130 pts (or 100 pts if you go from #2 to #10).
Posted by seawolf06
NH
Member since Oct 2007
8159 posts
Posted on 8/16/17 at 7:32 am to
The bigger the league, the less of an advantage the #1 pick becomes, but it's still an advantage.

I read before that in on an average team, your first 2 picks constitute about 25% of your scoring over the length of the season and your first 4 picks account for nearly 50%. That means 50% of your production comes from just 25-30% of your picks. This is what leads to the phrase - "you can't win your league in the first few rounds, but you certainly can lose it".

Good luck!
Posted by kciDAtaE
Member since Apr 2017
15767 posts
Posted on 8/16/17 at 4:34 pm to
Yeah. Sucks to have the best player in the league and 3 of the top 25 players.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25633 posts
Posted on 8/17/17 at 2:39 pm to
assuming you could trade draft picks, what kind of trade would you propose?

We've never traded draft picks, but it's an option, and i'm determined to do so this year. I hate picking early as well, so if i get a top 2 pick, i'd like to ship it out.

I was thinking maybe my 1st and 7th round pick for someones 2nd and 4th. I really have no idea what would be reasonable.
Posted by HeadedToTheWoods
Sportsman's Paradise
Member since Dec 2013
1039 posts
Posted on 8/17/17 at 3:03 pm to
To mess up a team having the #1 pick, barring injury, would be terrible. I've hammered every time I've had a top or bottom of the draft order pick.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
25633 posts
Posted on 8/17/17 at 3:04 pm to
quote:

To mess up a team having the #1 pick, barring injury, would be terrible. I've hammered every time I've had a top or bottom of the draft order pick.



I have no idea what any of this means.
Posted by olegreg
Denham Springs
Member since Dec 2009
610 posts
Posted on 8/18/17 at 9:30 pm to
quote:

I have to disagree with you here. In my 10-team league I have the first pick and it guarantees me either DJ or Bell and then a WR (In mocks I've been able to pull Dez, TY, Cooper) and a RB (Fournette, Gurley, Miller).In my standard league this is a massive advantage; last year the difference between the "Elite" WR at 1 and the #10 wr was 50 pts. Whereas the #1 Rb vs #10 130 pts (or 100 pts if you go from #2 to #10).



The problem here is that you play in a 10 man and this is a 12 man. That adds 4 extra picks before my 2nd pick. It makes a big deal as the draft goes on as well.


quote:

The bigger the league, the less of an advantage the #1 pick becomes, but it's still an advantage. I read before that in on an average team, your first 2 picks constitute about 25% of your scoring over the length of the season and your first 4 picks account for nearly 50%. That means 50% of your production comes from just 25-30% of your picks. This is what leads to the phrase - "you can't win your league in the first few rounds, but you certainly can lose it".


Exactly my point. By the time my 2nd round pick comes around, all of the fantasy studs will be gone (meaning everyone will have 2 to my 1) and Ill have to reach.

quote:

assuming you could trade draft picks, what kind of trade would you propose?


Id trade my #1 overall for someone who has a middle to late pick in the order. Id trade for their first and try to get a second, if not then id settle for a 3rd.
Posted by bulldog95
North Louisiana
Member since Jan 2011
20722 posts
Posted on 8/19/17 at 9:21 am to
When I choose my draft position I could go #6 or #12. I choose 12 and got Jordy and Michael Thomas. My next 2 picks in the 3rd and 4th were Lamar miller and marshawn
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