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Message
re: Nate Copper officially tarnished
Posted on 11/9/16 at 10:49 am to RobbBobb
Posted on 11/9/16 at 10:49 am to RobbBobb
OMG, you fricking morons don't understand stats.
You can't get one decision "wrong". He gave odds.You have to judge him on an aggregate of his decisions. Its like someone telling you not to buy a lottery ticket and then that person wins and rubs it in your face. It was still unlikely you were going to win.
Jesus H, he gave the trump campaign the best chance of winning of everyone.
You can't get one decision "wrong". He gave odds.You have to judge him on an aggregate of his decisions. Its like someone telling you not to buy a lottery ticket and then that person wins and rubs it in your face. It was still unlikely you were going to win.
Jesus H, he gave the trump campaign the best chance of winning of everyone.
1
Posted on 11/9/16 at 10:53 am to barry
quote:
Jesus H, he gave the trump campaign the best chance of winning of everyone.
No he didn't. LAT and IBD did.
Hre gave Trump a 28% chance and Trump will end up with 306 electoral votes. That's not even remotely close. Based on the EC and popular vote, this should have been a 50/50 prediction, like Brexit, not 72/28
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:03 am to RobbBobb
quote:
Hre gave Trump a 28% chance and Trump will end up with 306 electoral votes. That's not even remotely close
WOW you really don't get stats
It's an EXPECTED outcome. It's why you can't blast someone for one prediction.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:22 am to RobbBobb
quote:Nobody "knew" this. We thought the same thing in 2012 for Obama, and it was actually under- sampling.
He knew the polls were oversampling i
The turnout is an unknown so he doesn't adjust for that. I mean last night we thought we were heading for record turnout and we come to find out that it was actually low turnout.
This is why his model allows for more uncertainty than the other modelers. I don't know what else you expect him to do given the informatio available.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:25 am to RobbBobb
quote:And LAT was off by pretty large margin. LAT and IBD was approximating the popular vote anyways. Put another way, a poll that Hillary as +4 will probably be closer to the popular outcome than LAT, which had Trump had +3.2
No he didn't. LAT and IBD did.
Posted on 11/9/16 at 11:25 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
He was arguably the most accurate aggregator this cycle. I don't understand the hate for this guy.
Agreed.
It is almost as if folks don't understand what he does.
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