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re: The Hill: Unvaccinated people should expect to catch COVID-19 every 16 months...
Posted on 10/20/21 at 11:06 am to finchmeister08
Posted on 10/20/21 at 11:06 am to finchmeister08
quote:Good God Almighty that is a crap study!
Methods
We conducted phylogenetic analyses of the S, M, and ORF1b genes to reconstruct a maximum-likelihood molecular phylogeny of human-infecting coronaviruses. This phylogeny enabled comparative analyses of peak-normalised nucleocapsid protein, spike protein, and whole-virus lysate IgG antibody optical density levels, in conjunction with reinfection data on endemic human-infecting coronaviruses. We performed ancestral and descendent states analyses to estimate the expected declines in antibody levels over time, the probabilities of reinfection based on antibody level, and the anticipated times to reinfection after recovery under conditions of endemic transmission for SARS-CoV-2, as well as the other human-infecting coronaviruses.
Findings
We obtained antibody optical density data for six human-infecting coronaviruses, extending from 128 days to 28 years after infection between 1984 and 2020. These data provided a means to estimate profiles of the typical antibody decline and probabilities of reinfection over time under endemic conditions. Reinfection by SARS-CoV-2 under endemic conditions would likely occur between 3 months and 5·1 years after peak antibody response, with a median of 16 months. This protection is less than half the duration revealed for the endemic coronaviruses circulating among humans (5–95% quantiles 15 months to 10 years for HCoV-OC43, 31 months to 12 years for HCoV-NL63, and 16 months to 12 years for HCoV-229E). For SARS-CoV, the 5–95% quantiles were 4 months to 6 years, whereas the 95% quantiles for MERS-CoV were inconsistent by dataset.
It is an extrapolation based on secondary extrapolations based heavily on studies of non-SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses. i.e., an extrapolation of an extrapolation of a guess.
And what's worse? They don't run comparatives with vaccination.
Posted on 10/20/21 at 2:04 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:
Good God Almighty that is a crap study!
It is an extrapolation based on secondary extrapolations based heavily on studies of non-SARS-CoV-2 coronaviruses. i.e., an extrapolation of an extrapolation of a guess.
And what's worse? They don't run comparatives with vaccination.
And they wonder why people have a mistrust for the science community. This is PROPAGANDA, plain and simple bc they LEFT OUT the data on the vaccinated where the efficacy clearly begins to drop after 6 months. This “study” IF they include the vaccinated data could very well show NI is stronger than initial dose vaccine only immunity over time
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