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Message
re: CPI increase came in at 4.2% vs expected 3.6%.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:45 am to slackster
Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:45 am to slackster
We knew the Y/Y would be high due to base effects, and I think everyone here knows my longer term deflationary outlook, but the M/M prints, particularly for Core, are pretty hot. Expect the market to start pricing in some tapering and/or rate hikes, and expect bond yields to rally. We’ll see what those higher rates do to equities trading at all time highs and equity bulls screaming “this time is different,” as if we don’t hear that in every bubble.
This post was edited on 5/12/21 at 7:47 am
3
Posted on 5/12/21 at 7:47 am to RedStickBR
quote:
We knew the Y/Y would be high due to base effects, and I think everyone here knows my longer term deflationary outlook, but the M/M prints, particularly for Core, are pretty hot.
Yeah I’m not trying to downplay anything. The whole transitory excuse makes sense to me, but I suppose we won’t know for sure until the end of the year or so.
Eta- Used car prices were up like 10% month over month. That’s a short term type of move due to supply crunches, for example.
This post was edited on 5/12/21 at 7:54 am
Posted on 5/12/21 at 8:25 am to RedStickBR
CPI bottomed in May last year so I'd expect another few prints similar in to this. Now if they can pump these price increases into Q421-Q121 I would legit be impressed. I'd imagine there's a demand issue when unemployment gets pulled after July 31st, much like the stimulus last year. Then you have "infrastructure." Let's see if Congress has been resurrected from clown world and are finally serious or if they want to play games for mid terms. I'll bet the latter.
Posted on 5/12/21 at 6:05 pm to RedStickBR
quote:
We knew the Y/Y would be high due to base effects, and I think everyone here knows my longer term deflationary outlook,
This, my friends, is a clear reason expect whiplash market action for months to come. “INFLATION’S UP! NO IT’S DOWN! I DON’T KNOW ANYMORE!”
Throw in a little Middle East turmoil to help throw gas on oil prices too. Awwww yeah!
This post was edited on 5/12/21 at 6:07 pm
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