re: Hurricane Gustav

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quote:

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If the models were in complete disagreement on Gustav's projected path, you might have a valid point. However, that is not the case here.

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From national hurricane center

[quote]THERE REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD INTHE MODELS AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND. THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS
MAINTAIN THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH KEEPS GUSTAVE
MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS WEAKEN THE RIDGE WHICH ALLOWS FOR A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFS/HWRF SCENARIO AND IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.