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re: Akebia Therapeutics (AKBA)- Vadadustat FDA Approved AT LAST!!

Posted on 3/28/24 at 7:52 am to
Posted by TigerDoug
Lees Summit
Member since Mar 2017
621 posts
Posted on 3/28/24 at 7:52 am to
Not sure why the delay until January 2025. Any thoughts on buyout from CSL Vifor?
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
7918 posts
Posted on 3/28/24 at 8:07 am to
I haven’t followed the name as well as you guys have over the last year. No mention of M&A on the conference call, but that’s no indication of anything.

I’m happy holding and might add another 1-2k more shares.

1) cheap on a price to sales basis
2) new FDA approval ($2-3B TAM?)
3) ~2 years of readily available cash
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
19250 posts
Posted on 3/28/24 at 8:23 am to
quote:

Not sure why the delay until January 2025. Any thoughts on buyout from CSL Vifor?

Launches are difficult. Don't ask me how I know.
If it were to get bought out people think it would be CSL Vifor who already has a large investment in AKBA.

But, I wouldn't call that a reason to invest. I wouldn't even think about it. If it happens, it happens.
Posted by LSUcam7
FL
Member since Sep 2016
7918 posts
Posted on 3/28/24 at 9:14 am to
quote:

Not sure why the delay until January 2025


In my own words, management stated they start a “road show,” promoting the drug in October ‘24, revenues start to reflect Q1/2 ‘25.

The rationale for not immediately rushing to physicians; they want to best ensure a successful launch. My guess is they’ve been laser focused on FDA.. now that the drug is green lit, they change focus on securing sales.

I take it as a healthy sign for the long term. Successful launch and long term cash flows > rush launch and immediate share price reaction.
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