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re: Anyone follow lumber prices?

Posted on 2/2/21 at 2:03 pm to
Posted by BornCritic
Member since Nov 2020
696 posts
Posted on 2/2/21 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

Anyone follow lumber prices?


I tried but got altitude sickness. :rimshot:

It really is bananas right now. If they give us another stimulus check, I assume it will get worse.

Lumber prices have made me a believer in the Great Reset. They're trying to make us lose our minds.
This post was edited on 2/2/21 at 2:06 pm
Posted by No Colors
Sandbar
Member since Sep 2010
10486 posts
Posted on 2/3/21 at 5:10 am to
quote:

Lumber prices have made me a believer in the Great Reset. They're trying to make us lose our minds


Nah. It's simple supply side economics. For decades, Canada operated their forests as a jobs program. They harvested at a way higher rate than they grow back. Of course the forests are 90% owned by the government so it's no surprise that they were grossly mismanaged. The government even built the CN Railroad all throughout the remote timber belt of interior Canada. And subsidized flat car rates into the US. So free timber and nearly free transportation. And low interest government loans to build sawmills.

For decades the Canadians could deliver a 2x6 to Memphis TN cheaper than a pine sawmill in Mississippi could. So, not enough pine sawmills were built in the Southeast.

Now, I am not so sad to report, that Canada is basically out of Timber. And they're closing several sawmills every year. Plus a more environmentally friendly liberal government is finally cutting back on their unsustainable harvest practices. So their lumber production is now in a significant decline.

The Southeast USA has been growing three times as much pine timber as we have been harvesting. We don't have nearly enough sawmills. So the business is suddenly very profitable here

There's a rush to catch up. We are building about 4 or 5 new modern pine sawmills per year in the SE over the past 5 years. But it will take another 10 years to bring things back into balance. Until then, lumber prices will be subject to seasonal shortages and lots of volatility.
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