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The great polling debate....

Posted on 8/16/08 at 12:11 pm
Posted by TigerRanter
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2005
6828 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 12:11 pm
In your view, should teams be ranked according to how good they look going into the season (hype, etc.), or by looking at the schedules and trying to predict how they will finish the season?
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
35604 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 12:12 pm to
Neither, they should be ranked after week three according to how good they look at that point.
Posted by bigpapamac
Mobile, AL
Member since Oct 2007
22562 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 12:23 pm to
If they are going to be preseason rankings, teams should be ranked on how good they are. You shouldn't look at schedules and what not to do it, polls are supposed to rank the best teams, not predict the finish.
Posted by Indiana Tiger
Member since Feb 2005
4121 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 1:27 pm to
quote:

If they are going to be preseason rankings, teams should be ranked on how good they are. You shouldn't look at schedules and what not to do it, polls are supposed to rank the best teams, not predict the finish.

I think focusing on the only poll that counts (i.e. the one that decides the BCS participants) makes the most sense. This said, I think the best polls are those that encourage a diversity of approaches. Nobody knows what is the best single way, so it's best to get a consensus of approaches. The worst approach is everybody projecting the same way.
Posted by BBATiger
Member since Jun 2005
16719 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 1:29 pm to
quote:

Neither, they should be ranked after week three according to how good they look at that point.


In that case, LSU will be #1. I'd give it 5 games.
Posted by tigersandjets
New Orleans
Member since May 2007
734 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

Neither, they should be ranked after week three according to how good they look at that point.


word.

ranking a team based on how good they look or how talented they seem is trash. teams should earn a ranking on the field.
Posted by TigerRanter
Louisiana
Member since Feb 2005
6828 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 4:01 pm to
quote:

Neither, they should be ranked after week three according to how good they look at that point.
I've always agreed with this, but I don't think we'll ever see it happen. I would actually add that the first poll shouldn't come out until October.
This post was edited on 8/16/08 at 4:03 pm
Posted by bigpapamac
Mobile, AL
Member since Oct 2007
22562 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 4:04 pm to
quote:

I think focusing on the only poll that counts


You do know that two polls are used in the BCS right? The USA Today and the Harris Interactive.
Posted by ASUTiger
The Holy Church of Global Warming
Member since Jan 2006
12501 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 4:08 pm to
week three or four. NOT before then.
Posted by Indiana Tiger
Member since Feb 2005
4121 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 4:36 pm to
quote:

You do know that two polls are used in the BCS right? The USA Today and the Harris Interactive.

You do know that only one of each of those polls really matter; and you do know that the voters in those polls are mutually exclusive so a voter only has one poll to worry about. Of course I wouldn't expect you to know that you made a truly stupid comment.
Posted by BigLSUNut
Prairieville, La.
Member since Oct 2007
1469 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 5:01 pm to
The fallacy with human polls is that most people are reluctant to put a team ahead of another unless the higher ranked team loses.

This, of course, presumes that the first poll is correct. Say what you want about computers, but they rank teams by what they did at that point in the season.

Point of proof. What happened to LSU in the final poll prior to the NC game? We jumped several teams that did not lose the week before. Why? All during the season, pollsters had this silly rule about not jumping teams in front. At the last poll, they finally realized that they should rank the teams based on the years performance to date.

The result was LSU in the second slot.

Here is my golden rule about rankings (human or computer)

THOU SHALT NOT BE RANKED AHEAD OF A TEAM THAT BEAT YOU UNLESS THAT TEAM HAS MORE LOSSES.
Posted by Indiana Tiger
Member since Feb 2005
4121 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 5:06 pm to
quote:

THOU SHALT NOT BE RANKED AHEAD OF A TEAM THAT BEAT YOU UNLESS THAT TEAM HAS MORE LOSSES.

Rank the following:

Team A: 11-1
Team B: 11-1
Team C: 11-1

Team A beat Team B
Team B beat Team C
Team C beat Team A
Posted by BigLSUNut
Prairieville, La.
Member since Oct 2007
1469 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 5:18 pm to
Three way tie
Posted by Indiana Tiger
Member since Feb 2005
4121 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 5:21 pm to
quote:

Three way tie

1. Team D is 12-0
your 3-way tie is next.

It's just a fact that only one of the three can go. Who's it going to be?
Posted by Achee
Team Hawthorne
Member since Sep 2006
1892 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 5:21 pm to
How they look.Therefore taking this "they'll lose two games so I have them 7th" sh** and ending it.Rank them regardless of their schedule.
Posted by Geauxtiga
No man's land
Member since Jan 2008
34400 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 5:55 pm to
quote:

In your view, should teams be ranked according to how good they look going into the season (hype, etc.), or by looking at the schedules and trying to predict how they will finish the season?

quote:

Neither, they should be ranked after week three according to how good they look at that point.
I agree with your premise but, like BBATiger, I'd go 5 games but even three would be better.


quote:

ranking a team based on how good they look or how talented they seem is trash. teams should earn a ranking on the field.
No doubt and though it's changed a lot, pre-season polls were never intended to carry so much weight. In fact, the AP was was initially just for chits and giggles:

In reading Stewart Mandel’s book, Bowls, Polls, & Tattered Souls, which I highly recommend to fans who enjoy reading books about college football, it was very interesting to learn the origins of the AP Poll.

According to Mandel, Sports Illustrated writer and college football historian Dan Jenkins’ book in 1973, tells us the first person to rank teams was Frank Dickinson. Dickinson was an economics professor at the University of Illinois and used a mathematical formula he had derived.

Ironically, he had begun, and had been, doing it for his own private enjoyment and went public with it in 1926. Shortly thereafter, several other polls started being done as well; however, Dickinson’s was perceived as the most legitimate poll of the era.

Later, Associated Press sports editor Alan J. Gould was responsible for bringing college football rankings to the country on a weekly basis. It was midway through the 1935 season that Gould began sending his college football rankings to the AP’s subscribers. His reason? In his own words, “It was a case of thinking up ideas to develop interest and controversy between football Saturdays. Papers wanted material to fill space between games. This was just another exercise in hoopla.” Gould is also quoted as saying, “All I had in mind was something to keep the pot boiling.” It is safe to say, that much, he did achieve.
Posted by Geauxtiga
No man's land
Member since Jan 2008
34400 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 5:58 pm to
If anyone is interested, I found this on another board and thought I'd share. It shows who was preseason #1 in the APCoaches Polls and in parenthesis is where they finished.



Preseason #1's Over the Last 10 Years (With Final Rankings)

1997
AP: Penn State (#16)
Coaches: Florida (#6)

1998
AP: Ohio State (#2)
Coaches: Ohio State (#2)

1999
AP: Florida State (#1)
Coaches: Florida State (#1)

2000
AP: Nebraska (#8)
Coaches: Nebraska (#7)

2001
AP: Florida (#3)
Coaches: Florida (#3)

2002
AP: Miami (#2)
Coaches: Miami (#2)

2003
AP: Oklahoma (#3)
Coaches: Oklahoma (#3)

2004
AP: USC (#1)
Coaches: USC (#1)

2005
AP: USC (#2)
Coaches: USC (#2)

2006
AP: Ohio State (#2)
Coaches: Ohio State (#2)

2007
AP: USC (#3)
Coaches: USC (#2)
This post was edited on 8/16/08 at 6:00 pm
Posted by Indiana Tiger
Member since Feb 2005
4121 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 6:46 pm to
quote:

Neither, they should be ranked after week three according to how good they look at that point.

I wish someone would actually provide some evidence that preseason polls have the power that they are claimed to have. Personally, I don't see it, and I enjoy the polls.
Posted by Geauxtiga
No man's land
Member since Jan 2008
34400 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 7:55 pm to
quote:

I wish someone would actually provide some evidence that preseason polls have the power that they are claimed to have. Personally, I don't see it, and I enjoy the polls.
See Auburn in '04. USC and Oklahoma both started out #1 and #2; neither lost; Auburn went undefeated in the SEC and didn't get a crack at the NC game.

Nuff proof for you?
Posted by Hot Carl
Prayers up for 3
Member since Dec 2005
62071 posts
Posted on 8/16/08 at 7:57 pm to
anyone who takes schedules into account is a dumbass. Before the games have been played, of course.
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