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re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted on 10/27/20 at 1:42 pm to SlowFlowPro
Posted on 10/27/20 at 1:42 pm to SlowFlowPro
there's 1 clear example of bad input to a 538 model: the 2016 presidential election. they've proven to do a good job predicting results over the last decade.
538 has never tried to be "wrong" or "right", just apply probabilities. They also never give 0 because it's impossible to give zero, the mathematics of probability prevent a 0% chance in an election based on people voting when they haven't asked every single one the voters. They don't avoid saying 0 to avoid being wrong, it's just math.
538 has never tried to be "wrong" or "right", just apply probabilities. They also never give 0 because it's impossible to give zero, the mathematics of probability prevent a 0% chance in an election based on people voting when they haven't asked every single one the voters. They don't avoid saying 0 to avoid being wrong, it's just math.
2
Posted on 10/27/20 at 1:48 pm to nc_tiger
quote:
538 has never tried to be "wrong" or "right", just apply probabilities.
and i have defended them on here within the past week
but, if Nate is really using his own subjective grading scale to rank polls, then he's making subjective evaluations. and we all know those decisions are primed and biased to hell (not due to Nate; due to human nature)
quote:
there's 1 clear example of bad input to a 538 model: the 2016 presidential election
which was such a blow to the system it should have invalidated this talking point entirely
however, we're back again...with...mirrored polling to 2016. if Nate were this robot "just entering data" then he'd have to account for this. he has...just not in the data and modeling he presents (he saves it for words on his podcast where he basically admits he knows the polls are bullshite but throws up his hands and goes "oh well" while giving Biden higher odds than he admits he should)
Posted on 10/27/20 at 1:50 pm to nc_tiger
quote:
538 has never tried to be "wrong" or "right", just apply probabilities.
And yet you said he “aced” 2012. Isn’t that a claim that he was right?
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