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Rush once again delivering awesomeness - why Biden polling well?
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:22 pm
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:22 pm
Conversation he had with a pollster revealed that:
- suburban women (traditionally conservative) being over-sampled
- rural conservatives being under-sampled
- rural "Reagan Democrats" under-sampled
The result...
1) they can claim the amount of Republicans being sampled is "correct" when in fact, they are over-sampling the anti-Trump electorate
2) added bonus.. they get to boost the "anti-Trump Republicans" in a sub-set of the results
I (me, not Rush) am one to be skeptical of the polls, but not as dismissive of them as some of y'all. But I can tell you that seeing Biden +5 in Ohio is all but laughable, and very-much makes me believe the above is true, because:
- Trump won Ohio in '16 by 9.5
- Obama won Ohio in '12 by 1.5
If you believe Biden has swung Ohio by 14.5 points in four years then I have a bridge to sell you!
- suburban women (traditionally conservative) being over-sampled
- rural conservatives being under-sampled
- rural "Reagan Democrats" under-sampled
The result...
1) they can claim the amount of Republicans being sampled is "correct" when in fact, they are over-sampling the anti-Trump electorate
2) added bonus.. they get to boost the "anti-Trump Republicans" in a sub-set of the results
I (me, not Rush) am one to be skeptical of the polls, but not as dismissive of them as some of y'all. But I can tell you that seeing Biden +5 in Ohio is all but laughable, and very-much makes me believe the above is true, because:
- Trump won Ohio in '16 by 9.5
- Obama won Ohio in '12 by 1.5
If you believe Biden has swung Ohio by 14.5 points in four years then I have a bridge to sell you!
This post was edited on 9/28/20 at 12:23 pm
2
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:44 pm to JPinLondon
quote:
If you believe Biden has swung Ohio by 14.5 points in four years then I have a bridge to sell you
What they are hoping for is that Trump turned off voters. Nobody is voting FOR Biden except his family. Biden voters are voting against Trump>
Posted on 9/28/20 at 12:49 pm to JPinLondon
quote:Regardless, no one wants their house graffitied due to participation in a poll as a Trump supporter. IMO Trump vote undersampling in polls this year will exceed that of 2016 by a percent or two.
Conversation he had with a pollster revealed that:
- suburban women (traditionally conservative) being over-sampled
- rural conservatives being under-sampled
- rural "Reagan Democrats" under-sampled
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