re: Do people REALLY not understand why you go for two after the first TD when down 15?

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I feel like I am taking crazy pills with so many people arguing that going for two first is the right/smart play. It makes zero sense to me, and I'm generally a bright guy. All logic tells me to not go for two until you have to.

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Here's the discrepancy IMO, as I touched on in a previous post:

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so why do it early? If you don't get it, the game is over

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If you go for the two first and don't get it, you've fricked yourself out of a chance to tie, whereas if you kick the XP early, it's still a one possession game and you can get the ball back with a chance to tie the game.

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In both of these examples, you're comparing not getting the 2pt conversion to the chance of getting it later. Think about both of the things you quoted, now to make it apples to apples, compare that to missing the 2pt conversion after the 2nd TD. That is the only way for these comparisons to make any sense.

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What is your argument of "I'd rather be down 9 with five minutes left than down 2 with 20 seconds left" mean"

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Well out of 2 shitty spots to be on, I think anyone would take being down 9 with 5 minutes left over down to with 20 seconds left.

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(i.e. it's still a one-possession game despite what shel keeps arguing

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Again, I'm talking the reality of the situation which is the ONLY thing that matters. The reality, the facts based on the data, is the most likely scenario that would play out means being down 8 is being down 2 possessions. That's a fact, inarguable, it just is so. That fact matters a shite ton more than the theoretical idea that you might be able to tie the game with 1 possession.