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re: Rasmussen Pennsylvania Poll: Trump 46 Biden 46
Posted on 9/3/20 at 8:58 am to Pettifogger
Posted on 9/3/20 at 8:58 am to Pettifogger
quote:
I thought Nate Silver's thing on the pop vote yesterday was very interesting. No idea if accurate, but basically any close pop vote (Biden wins by a point or two) = Trump win
I would say anything within 3% of a popular vote advantage for Biden will ultimately be a Trump victory. Most of these states come from NY, CA, and IL. A lot of battleground polls have Trump ahead at the moment. If that holds, Trump will walk into a second term.
1
Posted on 9/3/20 at 9:02 am to Cajunese
Should.
But the general feeling is that Dems will contest the election, even if not close, to attempt to delegitimize Trump.
I don’t see how the current narrative of Trump having 400+ EVs on eledtion night then losing holds up though. A 130+ EV swing means about 3-4 states minimum, possibly more, and many of those states are solidly Republican.
But the general feeling is that Dems will contest the election, even if not close, to attempt to delegitimize Trump.
I don’t see how the current narrative of Trump having 400+ EVs on eledtion night then losing holds up though. A 130+ EV swing means about 3-4 states minimum, possibly more, and many of those states are solidly Republican.
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