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re: It’s over. Biden has a 71% chance of winning
Posted on 8/12/20 at 12:04 pm to jatilen
Posted on 8/12/20 at 12:04 pm to jatilen
quote:
This is terrible news. Nate was so accurate in 2016:
I'm sure you are looking at the top percentage numbers, but if you look at the map, it's actually almost spot on.
The popular vote broke almost exactly as predicted
He missed on 4 states, but they were arguably the 4 biggest: WI,NC,FL,PA
Of the 4 he missed, NC and FL where shaded the lightest blue, which indicated basically a 50/50 tossup to Hillary
From an EC standpoint the victory was a landslide in 2016, but that came with razor thin margins in some key states
1
Posted on 8/12/20 at 12:15 pm to OldManRiver
quote:
From an EC standpoint the victory was a landslide in 2016
It wasn't, though - Trump only beat Hillary by a mere 74 electors. That's historically a very narrow outcome. Bush Sr., Clinton and Obama all won their elections by a considerably greater margin than that. Reagan won his two elections by margins of over 400+ and 500+ electors, respectively.
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