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re: It’s over. Biden has a 71% chance of winning

Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:26 am to
Posted by jatilen
Member since May 2020
13608 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:26 am to
This is terrible news. Nate was so accurate in 2016:

Posted by AnyonebutSteelers
Austin, Texas
Member since Aug 2020
711 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 10:30 am to
Actually, Nate was criticized by liberals before Election Day 2016 because his model was considered to be far too generous to Trump. Many thought it ridiculous that Trump was given a near-30% chance of victory.

Sure, they ended up with egg on their faces, but Silver was actually one of the fairest and most objective analysts at the time. Trump's victory actually vindicated him in a certain sense, since he had given Trump the highest odds of winning compared to other analysts.
Posted by OldManRiver
Prairieville, LA
Member since Jan 2005
6925 posts
Posted on 8/12/20 at 12:04 pm to
quote:

This is terrible news. Nate was so accurate in 2016:


I'm sure you are looking at the top percentage numbers, but if you look at the map, it's actually almost spot on.

The popular vote broke almost exactly as predicted

He missed on 4 states, but they were arguably the 4 biggest: WI,NC,FL,PA

Of the 4 he missed, NC and FL where shaded the lightest blue, which indicated basically a 50/50 tossup to Hillary

From an EC standpoint the victory was a landslide in 2016, but that came with razor thin margins in some key states
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