The problem is that stuff is already "priced in." It will take an event in the bond market to shake the QQQ tree again. The DXY looks like it's behaving how the Fed wants and the MOVE index continues to dive so I'd guess we see ranged trading until Q3 earnings season.

quote:
Interestingly now neither Obama nor Trump have a stake at the dubious claim of never having a year with annual GDP of 3% or more as 2015 (3.1%) and 2018 (3%) were both revised upward.

I honestly thought the opposite would happen to 2018/2019.

This post was edited on 7/30/20 at 9:28 am

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Posted by RedStickBR

Member since Sep 2009

14577 posts

Posted on 7/30/20 at 9:32 am to wutangfinancial

I agree with you we'll need a catalyst before we see any sort of major retracement in the stock market, but I also think the underlying environment continues to evolve such that if said catalyst occurs, it could be catastrophic. Fiscal and monetary policy are both already highly accommodative, valuations are already near historical highs and credit is already tightening in certain areas.

While it may require a knockout punch to take out this market, I still think it's worth acknowledging the market appears to have a chin of glass at present.

This post was edited on 7/30/20 at 9:33 am

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Posted by SECFan1995

Member since Sep 2015

7880 posts

Posted on 7/30/20 at 9:41 am to wutangfinancial

If we bounce at 25k and 3k again when that comes up, that is going to confirm to me that we're range bound for a while.

I would not be surprised to see QQQ/the NASDAQ shave some points off whenever a vaccine gets announced next year, but it won't be a large amount unless the Fed has to raise interest earlier than they want to or we see another black swan event. Besides technology, a large amount of the stock market is still in a bear/recession market anyway.

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