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re: Time for a Malthusian catastrophe to fix this
Posted on 7/13/20 at 10:55 am to N.O. via West-Cal
Posted on 7/13/20 at 10:55 am to N.O. via West-Cal
quote:
Few have been so wrong yet venerated so much as Thomas Malthus.
Malthus was a VERY smart guy. His idea of geometric population increases was correct. His error was the earth's carrying capacity. In his day carrying capacity was not global. It was within a small biosphere.
The short explanation of geometric:
Pop is determined by female fertility rates. If Greta dies at 85 the obit will say 'survived by 4 children, 14 grandchildren and 22 great grand children.'
But if Greta tries to cross the ocean in a sailboat at 16 and drowns those 40 people will never exist.
Malthus was also right about natural checks that no longer exist. In his day natural checks kept SubSah Africa populations under control. They were too stupid to feed themselves during periods of drought or disease so they died. Now the west ships them food and they overpopulate beyond their ability to be self sufficient. Thus, they are forever dependent on aid.
2
Posted on 7/13/20 at 11:10 am to Zach
quote:
In his day natural checks kept SubSah Africa populations under control. They were too stupid to feed themselves during periods of drought or disease so they died.
The mathematical formulation of the geometric growth model specifically accounts for an increase of births during a specific period, and the decline of infant mortality is what buttressed African population growth, just like Europe and the rest of the developed world before it. Stupidity, war, colonialism, etc, aren't sufficient explanations for African population growth in the post-war era. The only explanation that holds is the demographic transition model.
Posted on 7/15/20 at 4:36 pm to Zach
"His error was the earth's carrying capacity."
Wouldn't you also agree that he was wrong--and persistently-so--regarding human adaptability? He was not only wrong about overall carrying capacity vs. that of a given locale, he was wrong about what the carrying capacity of a given biosphere could be. According to some now forgotten source, Malthus had some of the information showing how wrong he was even in his lifetime.
I recall hearing years ago at a hunter's safety course that the Malthusian approach has never worked in predicting human population declines but has been helpful in the field of wildlife management. Kinda makes sense. Principles of geometric population increases apply to animals just as well and mitigating technological (or cultural) advances are out the window.
Wouldn't you also agree that he was wrong--and persistently-so--regarding human adaptability? He was not only wrong about overall carrying capacity vs. that of a given locale, he was wrong about what the carrying capacity of a given biosphere could be. According to some now forgotten source, Malthus had some of the information showing how wrong he was even in his lifetime.
I recall hearing years ago at a hunter's safety course that the Malthusian approach has never worked in predicting human population declines but has been helpful in the field of wildlife management. Kinda makes sense. Principles of geometric population increases apply to animals just as well and mitigating technological (or cultural) advances are out the window.
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