re: Discussion of Fed Liquidity’s Impact on Equity Markets

I'm struggling to find my inner-bull. I haven't gone short the market, but I'm still heavy cash and currencies. When I consider that ...

1. corporate earnings growth stalled even years prior to COVID;

2. the headwind to y/y comps presented by the fact that low rates and taxes are not likely to get much lower, if at all, and the implication that has for #1;

3. historically high valuations;

4. the current, completely unsustainable levels of debt-to-GDP;

5. we've arguably seen "Peak Fed" unless they begin wiping their collective arse with the Federal Reserve Act;

6. the Fed's desperation for inflation, and the impact the opposite would have on risky assets; and

7. the potential for reality to begin being priced in as hopes for a V-shaped economic recovery are dashed

... I just can't get excited about this stock market. For stocks to continue to perform well would go against everything we are supposed to be rooting for as multi-generational stakeholders in the U.S. economy.

Simply put, there are a few things that need to be unwound (Fed balance sheet, US debt levels, ridiculously low rates, Mike Green might even add "passive") and I don't view any one of them as bullish. If we get more than one at once, God help us all.

Now, if the market gets back to March low levels, you'll see me start perking up pretty quickly, but I can't underwrite a heavy equity exposure at current levels, despite how horribly difficult it is to time the vagaries of the stock market.