quote:
Implementing lockdowns and social distancing policies that slow spread to a lower peak, gain capacity for testing, tracing, and treatment, and set a path toward a steady decline toward eradication.

eradication is not impossible and was never the (realistic) goal

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That is NOT what is happening in many states. Instead what is happening is a plateau followed by a new surge in exponential growth.

as expected and planned. elimination was NEVER the strategy. we NEED COVID cases to increase but plateau below critical care levels

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Immunity is going incredibly slow, confidence in the economy and the government are cratering, while death rates are much, much higher than countries that took a traditional approach.

those countries are going to face the same emotional reaction that you're displaying about the US. they'll just do it over and over and over again

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And spread doesn’t fire up like the Florida’s and Texas’s of the world no matter what, far from it. Most countries hit their peak and never significantly trend back up because they locked down stronger and reopened more wisely, giving them the sustained and necessary drop in cases to enable the capacity to control new outbreaks, and a willingness to lock back down if things get out of control, not recklessly like much of America has done.

I mean let’s compare here:

you're comparing the total for countries and then looking at states that NEVER had a real infection rate

if their rate is effectively 0, any increase is going to look bad. put the maps on the same scale and compare for me

quote:
What you see in many states is simply a slowdown before a new peak

show me a comparable state to Italy, like New York

i see you completely ignored my question about what we should do assuming no vaccine is ever created

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Posted by Bronc

Member since Sep 2018

12646 posts

Posted on 6/20/20 at 11:51 am to SlowFlowPro

Eradication as a threat was possible and is the goal, be it vaccine, herd immunity(your dumb strategy), or lockdowns and social distancing policies. But again, that is merely part of a holistic design strategy for why you flatten the curve.

And the fact you are asking me to do homework that you should have done before coming to this conversation with declarative statements says all I need to know.

New York actually looks similar to places like Italy, Germany, Spain, Australia, and New Zealand, their issue going forward will be avoiding what places like California and Texas are experiencing, which is laxing things too much, too quickly, and not having the requisite testing and tracing to control new spread.

Based on America’s weak chest for this virus, an absolute failure of federal leadership, an increasingly weak chest for state leadership(in part exacerbatted by failure of federal leadership to support state needs), I have my doubts they will succeed.

As to what we should do? Depends on the area. the federal government is failing massively in being the backbone of support and that muddies the state situation. Florida, Arizona and Texas should be pulling back to phase one or locking back down entirely, New York, New Jersey, and other states that have met the requisite 14 day sustained drop in new cases and succeeded through phase 1 should be opening up cautiously and in further phases and probably limiting flow into and out of the state, mandating social distancing and mask policies. Basically read the Harvard Medical Review, Heritage Foundation, or CDC guidelines and you have my answer. Have you bothered reading any of those?

This post was edited on 6/20/20 at 11:57 am

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