re: Individual State Election Odds via 5dimes

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On what planet is that heavy in Biden’s Favor?

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These states represent 146 EC votes. Assuming the other states end up as expected and are given, then that means Biden has 209 EC votes and Trump has 183 votes before considering these 146.

Using the implied probabilities of these odds (accounting for the vig) for each state (e.g., equal odds in AZ results in an expected value of 5.5 EC votes for both), the expected value of those 146 votes is 74 for Biden and 72 for Trump and 283 EC votes in total for Biden and 255 for Trump.

In addition, if we just give whoever has favored all EC votes for that particular state, and with AZ as a complete toss up and with we get 69 to 80 EC votes for Biden and 66 to 77 EC votes for Trump and 278 to 289 total EC votes for Biden and 249 to 260 EC votes for Trump.

So altogether, these odds indicate the largest advantage for Biden is 289 to 249, which means anywhere from 1 to 3 close states flipping could be the difference. That hardly implies that Biden is a heavy favorite, IMO.