re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley

quote:

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The depression is moving west-northwestward or 290/6 kt. The system has been moving cyclonically around a larger gyre over Central
America during the past couple of days, and while it remains embedded within the gyre it is forecast to turn west-southwestward, and then southward at a slower forward speed over the next couple of days. On this track, the cyclone is expected to move near the southern Bay of Campeche coast during the next day or two, and confidence it that portion of the track forecast is high. After that time, two distinct scenarios emerges. The first is that the
cyclone continues moving southward and weakens or dissipates over the rugged terrain over southern Mexico. The latest runs of the ECMWF and GFS favor that scenario. In this scenario, both models show a new system developing near the south-central Gulf of Mexico from another vorticity center that rotates around the larger gyre. The second scenario, favored by the UKMET and some EC ensemble
members, is for the depression to eject north-northeast moving into the central Gulf of Mexico by day 5. The NHC forecast favors the latter, but it is certainly possible that this tropical cyclone
will move inland and dissipates and a new cyclone formation occurs later this week. The latter portion of both the track and intensity forecast are of quite low confidence.

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Sounds to me like we're getting a cyclone in the south-central GoM in either scenario, the only difference is whether it's TD3 or newly developed TD4.