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Started By
Message
Are Airlines the play here?
Posted on 4/21/20 at 1:10 pm
Posted on 4/21/20 at 1:10 pm
Yes, they are getting crushed but they will inevitably recover, albeit slowly. You know they have to be stockpiling $0 oil right now. Its the typical pare trade but this is an unusual scenario. No way the govnt doesnt bail them out as well. I have to think its worth the "flyer"
Im buying LUV. May add Delta as well.
Im buying LUV. May add Delta as well.
7
Posted on 4/21/20 at 1:13 pm to Pangloss1010
Damn Warren, is that you? Legit brilliant strategy that nobody has thought of until now.
Tell us, which hedge fund do you manage? I want to invest with you immediately sir!
Tell us, which hedge fund do you manage? I want to invest with you immediately sir!
Posted on 4/21/20 at 1:16 pm to Boring
Douche
Posted on 4/21/20 at 1:21 pm to Pangloss1010
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/4/20 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 4/21/20 at 1:23 pm to Boring
Is it stating the obvious, yes. But in the scope of risk management, i'm asking more about timing and sustainability. But you sound like a delight.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 1:29 pm to Pangloss1010
quote:
You know they have to be stockpiling $0 oil right now.
Tell me more....
Posted on 4/21/20 at 1:29 pm to Boringaccountant
Back to risk, is the bailout inevitable....if yes, current equity is wiped out. So I guess my question is more on bailout. Being that govnmt has proven it will print $ on a whim, im sure it will be there. Will all airlines take it? Many baks rejected TARP
Posted on 4/21/20 at 1:46 pm to Pangloss1010
quote:
You know they have to be stockpiling $0 oil right now.
Except they are not stockpiling oil. Imagine if your household was in extreme debt, you and your wife both lost your jobs, and were down to your last couple thousand bucks with almost no credit available. You have 5 kids to feed. And the power company approached you and offered you the chance to buy your next year of power bills at half the amount you paid the year prior if you would pay for it right now in a lump sum upfront payment. Would you do it?
Posted on 4/21/20 at 1:47 pm to Pangloss1010
You have plenty of time to buy airlines.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 2:54 pm to Pangloss1010
Personally, i am waiting until after earnings.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 4:48 pm to Pangloss1010
quote:
Back to risk, is the bailout inevitable....if yes, current equity is wiped out.
Equity isn't always wiped out during a bailout. It is a possibility, though. My opinion is that Trump will not penalize shareholders even though it is the airline's fault they did not have larger cash reserves.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 5:04 pm to LSUTOM07
AER
They are highly leveraged, but they should be able to manage the demand destruction and grow after travel resumes.
quote:
AerCap Holdings N.V. is an independent aircraft leasing company. The Company focuses on acquiring in-demand aircraft, funding them, hedging interest rate risk and using its platform to deploy these assets. It operates its business on a global basis, leasing aircraft to customers in various geographical regions.
The Company is engaged in leasing, financing, sales and management of commercial aircraft and engines. It owns approximately 1,334 aircrafts. Its owned and managed aircraft were leased to approximately 200 customers in approximately 80 countries. It categorizes its aircraft services into aircraft asset management, administrative services and cash management services. The Company provides aircraft asset management and corporate services to securitization vehicles, joint ventures and other third parties.
They are highly leveraged, but they should be able to manage the demand destruction and grow after travel resumes.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 8:41 pm to Speedy G
quote:
You have plenty of time to buy airlines.
At much lower prices.
Myself I would not touch them due to their history of leaving shareholders with nothing and reorganizing but that is just me, OP, you do you.
Posted on 4/21/20 at 10:33 pm to Pangloss1010
Maybe, but it's going to a tough road for the remainder of 2020. Sure, there could be huge pent up demand for recreational travel later in the year. However, there will be so many restrictions nationwide that travel will be sparse until 2021 (in my opinion).
Business travel will continue to be slow, as companies cut costs and video conferencing becomes even more popular.
Business travel will continue to be slow, as companies cut costs and video conferencing becomes even more popular.
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