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Message
re: Coronavirus has now killed more Americans in 1 month than flu killed in entire year
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:36 pm to buckeye_vol
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:36 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
And since we’re probably only half way to our total death totals (80,000) with the actions in place, and the cases would probably would have at least doubled again, we’re looking at 240,000 to 320,000 deaths, at least 3 to 4 times the death totals. And those are conservative estimates.
Lol. IHME models have already been proven off by an order of magnitude.
Try again
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 4:37 pm
1
Posted on 4/19/20 at 4:38 pm to Apollyon
quote:The IHME model is underestimating deaths post-peak (Italy and Spain have already exceeded their original estimates and they have a long ways to go).
Lol. IHME models have already been proven off by an order of magnitude.
Try again
So the current IHME model’s death totals (about 60,300 in USA) are probably going to be off by 20 or 30 thousand since we’ll probably have more like 80,000 to 90,000 by August 4th (the final day of its projection).
So yeah it’s a really inaccurate model, but statistically and epidemiologically, it’s actually underestimating deaths by a lot on the backside of the peak due to its misspecification of the underlying distribution it’s estimating.
This post was edited on 4/19/20 at 4:41 pm
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