That shut down is going to leave scars that won't pop right back. Businesses will go under, loans will default, some unemployment will remain. I hope it's back within a year. That might be too optimistic.

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Posted by Lou Pai

Member since Dec 2014

28200 posts

Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:18 pm to Jake88

quote:
That shut down is going to leave scars that won't pop right back.

My personal belief is that the market will expand the multiple and look right through the muck and mire of bad Q1-Q2 prints/guides as good news continues to pour in. My best guess is that many CEOs will have conservative posturing on Q1 calls beginning later this month and won't have much to go off of yet but the market won't care. Could be wrong but that's what I'm thinking unless we see some bad news start coming out again.

Eta: obviously this is for the stock market itself. I'm not disputing the notion that there will be some issues to sort through in the broader economy unfortunately.

Eta2: as a caveat, OPEC is an annoying wild card. But the energy sector weighting in the market just isn't that meaningful anymore.

This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 8:22 pm

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Posted by moneyg

Member since Jun 2006

56944 posts

Posted on 4/6/20 at 9:20 pm to Jake88

quote:
That shut down is going to leave scars that won't pop right back. Businesses will go under, loans will default, some unemployment will remain. I hope it's back within a year. That might be too optimistic.

I agree with this except I'll say that the market isn't always a reflection of the economy itself. You are right about the damage that's already been done to the economy. And, every day that goes by it gets worse.

But, I could see the market rebounding a lot sooner than the economy does.

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