re: This is Birx and Fauci’s escape hatch

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And we will never know if the same thing would have played out without social distancing. Like I said in my previous post, will never know.
And I’m not talking about quarantining the sick or isolating the elderly.
I’m talking about forcing everyone to stay at home.

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I understand what you're saying, I'm just vehemently disagreeing with you. We already seeing countries that have put restrictions in place slow the rate of growth of new cases, in some cases considerably. S. Korea was seeing 5-6 times more new patients every day than they are now. Are you suggesting that is a coincidence? One way or the other it will completely observable. We'll know the dates the measures will have gone into place and we'll know the case volumes. The hypothesis is that the more stringent the measures, the more dramatic the drop in new cases 2-3 weeks later. That's not particularly complex analysis.