re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Even with the big testing drop the last couple of days, the percent positive dropping the way it has is a big deal. Hopefully we'll see hospitalizations drop below the June lows in the next 10 days or so (only about 4400 above June lows, and that low didn't include any hospitalizations in Florida I believe).

I'm still maintaining that states are starting to run out of people to test.

Something has been bothering me about the numbers for awhile now, specifically the total recovered versus active cases.

WOM lists nearly 3.8 million recoveries and just north of 2.5 million active cases. But as I look at state numbers, I know there is no way the active case load isn’t way overcooked and the recoveries way undercooked.

Take Florida. They list 528k of their cases active. The top 3 counties (Miami Dade, Broward and West Palm) list total cases minus deaths equals active cases. Not 1 has gone into the recovered category. Those three carry more than half of the active cases in the state. At worst, their active case count should stand at around 250k.

California is another example. Between Los Angeles, Alameda and Santa Clara , they carry around 280k of the state’s 370k active cases. None have reported recoveries.

Although I didn’t see breakdowns by county of other states, Georgia, Arizona, Virginia, Maryland and Missouri have grossly undercounted recoveries. There is no way that 75-80% of their total cases are still active. In Maryland’s case over 90%.

You have states and municipalities that are basing some of their decisions off numbers that aren’t close to reality. I believe our “active” case count in this country is around 1.7-1.8M. That’s a 30% drop in what is given as “the number”. Our recovery number should be closer to 4.5M.