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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 7/30/20 at 7:04 am to Ace Midnight
Posted on 7/30/20 at 7:04 am to Ace Midnight
Isn’t .55 pretty bad?
2
Posted on 7/30/20 at 7:23 am to baybeefeetz
It depends on how many people get it. If it takes 70% community infection to get to herd immunity, that would be the deaths of about 1.27 million (330 million x .7 x .0055). The 1918 flu outbreak killed about 650K as a point of historical comparison. You've got diseases that have small outbreaks like SARS, MERS, Ebola, that are more fatal on an IFR basis, but more easily suppressed. This one is tough because of presymptomatic/asymptomatic spread and fairly high R0. .55% is about 5.5x as fatal as typical flu.
This post was edited on 7/30/20 at 7:30 am
Posted on 7/30/20 at 8:31 am to baybeefeetz
quote:
Isn’t .55 pretty bad?
It's not great, but considering this is a novel disease without a vaccine or any pre-existing immunity.
The only "positive" (and this is relative, of course), is that it skews to the elderly in impact and spares the young.
The IFR for under 60 is going to be much, much closer to a very bad flu strain - probably closer to 0.08 to 0.15 or something like that.
I mean, I don't want to lose anyone, but a pandemic with this novel set of complications could be a lot worse.
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