re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

The volume of new cases has definitely flattened out and the growth rate is declining. The testing volume continues to move upwards but the great news is that the daily positivity rate is starting to fall.

Deaths continue to climb, with today's 1037 representing the highest Saturday since 5/23. The 7 day average for deaths is at 900 which is almost double the all-time low of 478 which occurred on 7/6/20. The number has steadily risen since 7/6.


The positivity rate chart is teasing a downward trend.


If the New Cases curve starts declining then we should expect to see the death curve start falling as well, but if it follows the pattern, it will be roughly 3 weeks behind the downturn in the New Cases curve. If you look at this near term graph of the 7-day average cases and deaths, you can see the death curve is roughly 3-4 weeks behind the New Cases curve.

The New Cases curve started leveling out around 7/19, 3 weeks from that date is August 9th. It will be interesting to see if the pattern holds.



The mortality rate continues to fall; however, if you examine the curve you can see that the decline is starting to lessen.



Florida, Arizona, California, Texas and Mississippi are the top 5 impact states for the day.