re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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Can you link me to anyone who thinks it's much lower than that? Curious to see their thoughts that testing is catching more than half of infections.

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This site has been quite accurate with their deaths projections and their R and infection estimates seem logical. They actually estimate infections as much higher, with an estimate of about 269,000 today, 3.8 times the case totals.

That’s also about 6% higher than their first peak estimate (257,000) which is 11 times higher than the cases on that day. But since they’re estimating infections, that’s also 5 days before the case peak and that might mean they’re accounting for a lag between infection and case reporting. It also seems reasonable that given more cases but lower positivity, that we’ve been catching more infections but now the case totals are rising so much and I believe positivity has started to rise (at least stopped falling) so now we’re actually surpassing the peak.

So if they are accounting for a 5 day lag, then in July 5th they estimated about 249,000 infections, which is 3.5 times today’s totals. They’re also projecting a peak of around 310,000 infections at the end of the month, but of course infections have to be estimated from case and testing data (and maybe some other parameters like deaths) so projections are especially difficult.

AI Covid 19