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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 5/22/20 at 7:44 am to WaWaWeeWa
Posted on 5/22/20 at 7:44 am to WaWaWeeWa
Here's a new paper on a topic that we discussed earlier: the stochasticity and heterogeneity in the transmission
dynamics.
Basically, the paper argues that most people have had this idea that each person who gets COVID-19 gives it to two or three people, and they argue that this is a bad model. According to the paper, most people will transmit the virus to zero people, while a few will give it to a lot.
The implications are obvious. If there is indeed great stochasticity and heterogeneity in transmission, then the outbreak is largely driven by superspreader events that create reservoirs of virus that can repeatedly seed a community.
So, if we can repeatedly test everyone at places such as meatpacking plants, nursing homes, and prisons, then we can "cut the tail" and dramatically reduce new cases.
TLDR: it means that if we do the right things, this virus is easier to control than most models have predicted.
LINK
dynamics.
Basically, the paper argues that most people have had this idea that each person who gets COVID-19 gives it to two or three people, and they argue that this is a bad model. According to the paper, most people will transmit the virus to zero people, while a few will give it to a lot.
The implications are obvious. If there is indeed great stochasticity and heterogeneity in transmission, then the outbreak is largely driven by superspreader events that create reservoirs of virus that can repeatedly seed a community.
So, if we can repeatedly test everyone at places such as meatpacking plants, nursing homes, and prisons, then we can "cut the tail" and dramatically reduce new cases.
TLDR: it means that if we do the right things, this virus is easier to control than most models have predicted.
LINK
2
Posted on 5/24/20 at 9:02 am to GOP_Tiger
Get this: a new study by an anti-smoking group actually found that smokers in their study in the UK were 36% less likely to become infected.
[Edit: here's the link]
You have to hunt and then calculate to find that, because of course the main emphasis of their paper is that they found that the smokers who did test positive had more symptoms, yada yada yada.
Again, folks, if some people are much more likely to be infected than others, then the threshold for herd immunity drops dramatically and the virus gets very easy to control with the immunity that we already have built up in the system. We've talked about it before, but here's the paper for those of you who haven't seen it.
If this theory is right, then we can continue to open things up and still effectively get rid of COVID-19 this summer.
[Edit: here's the link]
You have to hunt and then calculate to find that, because of course the main emphasis of their paper is that they found that the smokers who did test positive had more symptoms, yada yada yada.
Again, folks, if some people are much more likely to be infected than others, then the threshold for herd immunity drops dramatically and the virus gets very easy to control with the immunity that we already have built up in the system. We've talked about it before, but here's the paper for those of you who haven't seen it.
If this theory is right, then we can continue to open things up and still effectively get rid of COVID-19 this summer.
This post was edited on 5/24/20 at 1:14 pm
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